Chris Gutierrez vs Farid Basharat — ChatGPT betting tip 05 October 2025.

This is classic prospect-versus-veteran matchmaking with a lopsided price: Farid Basharat sits as a heavy favorite at 1.21, while Chris Gutierrez is a sizable underdog at 4.65. That line implies Basharat wins upward of 80% of the time, leaving Gutierrez around 21–22%—and that feels too dismissive of his paths. Draws in MMA are rare despite the tempting 38.00, so this is effectively a binary choice.

Gutierrez brings elite calf kicks, measured footwork, and strong ringcraft. He’s hard to corral for long stretches, rarely gets overwhelmed, and historically absorbs little clean damage thanks to distance management and a tight guard. His low-kick game isn’t just cosmetic; it reliably blunts opponents’ entries, saps stance integrity, and taxes balance. Over three rounds, that translates to cumulative control of the striking tempo and a tendency to edge minutes—even in bouts that look low-event on paper.

Basharat is a polished, intelligent operator with a well-rounded base and clean positional grappling. He excels at controlling transitions, staying safe, and making steady progress without taking big risks. That style is excellent for banking rounds but doesn’t necessarily widen margins, and it can leave close frames where a handful of leg kicks, a stiff counter, or late-round momentum swings sway judges. Moreover, Gutierrez’s improved takedown defense and scrambling, plus his ability to fight off the fence with frames and knees, are tailor-made to punish level changes and clinch entires—especially if Basharat’s lead leg is chewed up early.

Tactically, Gutierrez should open with outside and calf kicks, pivot off the cage to deny body-lock setups, and jab into counters as Basharat resets. If he forces stance switches or slows Basharat’s first step, the wrestling threat diminishes and the striking gets more even. In a fight that likely goes to decision, durability and minute-winning tools matter—and Gutierrez has both.

At 4.65, the break-even sits near 21.5%. I project Gutierrez around 30% to win outright, with his leg-kick attrition and defensive savvy keeping every round competitive. That makes the underdog a positive expected value side versus a cautious favorite priced as if his control will be unquestioned. I’m putting the $1 on Chris Gutierrez to upset the apple cart at a number that overstates the gap.