Mario Pinto vs Jhonata Diniz — ChatGPT betting tip 11 October 2025.

Market snapshot: Mario Pinto is installed as a moderate favorite at 1.70 with Jhonata Diniz a live underdog at 2.22, and the rare draw priced at 33.00. On a three-way MMA board, this spread signals a presumed skill edge for Pinto but not an overwhelming one, which immediately puts the underdog in value consideration territory if we believe the contest plays closer to 50-50 than the line suggests.

Convert those prices to rough implied probabilities and you’ll see why this is interesting. Pinto at 1.70 implies about 58.9%, Diniz at 2.22 about 45.1%, and the draw at 33.00 around 3.0%. That sums to roughly 106.9%, a typical bookmaker hold across three outcomes. The question isn’t who the market lists as better; it’s whether there’s a mispricing we can exploit with a $1 stake.

In volatile three-round MMA, modest favorites often get shaded up due to name familiarity and risk aversion, while underdogs near the +120 range can carry quiet value if the matchup is at all symmetrical in athleticism, minute-winning, or finishing upside. If this fight is even moderately coin-flippy on skill and pacing, the underdog number is the superior risk-reward. At 2.22, Diniz needs only about 45.1% true win probability to break even. If we handicap him in the 47–50% corridor—entirely plausible for a competitive pairing—the bet’s expected value turns positive.

Think in paths rather than narratives. If Pinto is the steadier minute-winner, he likely edges rounds behind cleaner output and control, which supports a favorite price but not necessarily a dominant one. If Diniz brings the bigger moments—power exchanges, timely takedowns, or strong top time—he needs fewer sequences to swing a round or produce a finish. In lower-profile or less-scouted matchups, those swing sequences land more often than the market gives credit for, and that naturally favors the plus-money side.

As for the draw at 33.00, it’s appealing to the eye but rarely a smart allocation. Draws in three-round MMA are uncommon—well under the breakeven implied by that number—usually requiring point deductions or razor-thin 10-10s. We can safely discard it for long-term profitability.

Let’s quantify the edge. A $1 stake on Diniz at 2.22 returns $1.22 profit on a win and loses $1 otherwise. At a conservative 47% true chance, EV ≈ 0.47 × 1.22 − 0.53 × 1 = +0.043. Push that to 49% and the edge grows to roughly +0.11 per dollar. You don’t need to believe Diniz is better—only that he’s competitive enough to win just a touch more often than the price implies.

Unless late market movement gifts us a better number on Pinto or new, credible information tilts the matchup sharply, the disciplined play is to take the plus money. I’m placing the $1 on Jhonata Diniz at 2.22 and living with the variance that comes with a close fight, because over time, these are precisely the underdog tickets that add up.