Nikolay Veretennikov vs Punahele Soriano — ChatGPT betting tip 04 October 2025.

The market is loudly signaling a one-way fight with Punahele Soriano priced as a clear favorite at 1.31, while Nikolay Veretennikov sits as the underdog at 3.64 (and the draw a distant 50.00, which is rarely relevant in MMA). That price tag implies heavy confidence in Soriano’s explosiveness and early finishing equity—but it also sets a high bar for certainty that may not be justified by the matchup dynamics.

Soriano’s strengths are obvious: bursty entries, real knockout power, and the ability to flip a fight with one clean exchange in the first five minutes. He’s dangerous when he’s dictating and when opponents linger in the pocket on straight lines. The flip side is the long-observed volatility that comes with a power-first approach—output can ebb after the initial surge, defensive layers thinning as the bout extends, and counters becoming more available when he loads up to reassert momentum.

Veretennikov, by contrast, profiles as a technically disciplined striker who is comfortable playing the patient game—measured jab, counters over predictable entries, and a willingness to touch the body and legs to add up damage. He doesn’t need to win a track meet early; he needs to survive it, keep his shape defensively, and feed Soriano a steady diet of jabs, low kicks, and resets that frustrate clean pocket entries. If he forces more second and third exchanges in each sequence rather than one-and-done pocket trades, his win equity grows quickly after the adrenaline spike of Round 1.

From a betting perspective, this is where the numbers matter. The implied probability at 1.31 puts Soriano north of roughly three-in-four to win, while 3.64 pegs Veretennikov around one-in-four. In a matchup that hinges on early chaos versus late discipline, that feels inflated. If you price Soriano closer to the low 60s as a percentage and Veretennikov around the mid-to-high 30s, the underdog becomes a positive expected value play. On a $1 stake, a victory at 3.64 returns $2.64 profit, and even modestly upgrading Veretennikov’s chances over the market’s implied clip produces a solid EV edge. Conversely, backing a big favorite at 1.31 leaves little margin for error, especially against a composed counterstriker with legitimate late-fight win conditions.

The path is clear: weather the early storm, check the rushes with jabs and low kicks, clinch or circle off the cage when necessary, and let volume and accuracy take over as Soriano’s pace tapers. You absolutely have to respect Soriano’s round-one killshot—this is not a "safe" bet—but price makes the bet, and the number on Veretennikov is simply too attractive for the risk-reward profile.

Recommendation: Take the underdog moneyline on Nikolay Veretennikov at 3.64 for the superior value. Early danger is real, but over three rounds the technical and cardio-based win paths are robust enough to justify the shot.