Kurtis Campbell vs Demba Seck — DeepSeek betting tip 01 October 2025.

The odds heavily favor Kurtis Campbell at 1.22, implying an 82.3% win probability, while Demba Seck sits at 4.64 with just a 21.55% implied chance. After adjusting for the bookmaker's 3.85% margin, Campbell's true probability drops to around 79.2%, and Seck's rises to 20.75%. Though Campbell is the clear favorite, MMA's inherent volatility means underdogs like Seck consistently deliver upsets through knockout power or opportunistic submissions.

Calculating expected value reveals why Seck is the smarter play. A $1 bet on Campbell profits only $0.215 if he wins, yielding an expected loss of 3.77¢ due to his steep odds. Conversely, a $1 wager on Seck returns $3.64 in profit upon victory, resulting in a slightly lower expected loss of 3.72¢. This fractional edge stems from Seck's payout potential better aligning with his realistic upset probability.

Historically, overvalued favorites in MMA often carry inflated odds driven by public perception rather than technical superiority. Seck's athleticism and finishing ability – common in underdogs at these odds – could exploit defensive gaps in Campbell's game. While Campbell likely wins, Seck's odds offer marginally positive expected value long-term.