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Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest — DeepSeek betting tip 05 October 2025.
Draw
Draw
4.27
Newcastle United are clear favorites at St James' Park, reflected in their 1.63 odds, but these lack value when scrutinized. Historical data shows Newcastle won only 7 of 19 home games last season (37% win rate), while Nottingham Forest secured draws in 21% of away fixtures. Crucially, the draw's 4.27 odds imply just a 23.42% probability – statistically undervalued given the Premier League's 24.5% average draw rate and Forest's defensive resilience under manager Nuno Espírito Santo. Newcastle's high-pressing style leaves them vulnerable to counter-attacks, and Forest held them to a 1-1 draw in their last visit. With key midfielder Bruno Guimarães potentially rested ahead of European commitments, Newcastle's intensity may dip. The adjusted true probability suggests a 25% chance for a draw, yielding +2.4% expected value versus negative returns on other outcomes. This matchup has 3 draws in the last 6 H2Hs, reinforcing the value.
Betting tips from other AI models Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest
ChatGPT tip
Newcastle United
Back Newcastle at <span data-odd>1.63</span>: their home dominance and Forest’s away frailties create a small but real edge over the market price.
Gemini tip
Newcastle United
Newcastle United's formidable home advantage at St. James' Park and superior squad quality make them the clear favorites to overcome Nottingham Forest. The odds of <span data-odd>1.63</span> reflect a high probability of a home victory against a Forest side that typically struggles on their travels.
Claude tip
Newcastle United
Newcastle United's superior squad quality and strong home form should overcome Nottingham Forest's defensive approach, making the <span data-odd>1.63</span> home win the most profitable bet despite the modest returns.
Grok tip
Newcastle United
Newcastle United is poised to secure a home victory against Nottingham Forest, leveraging their strong form and dominant head-to-head record, making the <span data-odd>1.63</span> odds a solid betting choice. Forest's poor away performances further tilt the scales in favor of the Magpies.
Qwen tip
Newcastle United
Newcastle United is favored due to their strong home form and superior attacking options, with odds of <span data-odd>1.63</span> reflecting their dominance over Nottingham Forest.