Newells Old Boys vs CA Tigre BA — DeepSeek betting tip 10 October 2025.

Newells Old Boys enter this home fixture with compelling advantages that create value at 2.40 odds. Argentine Primera División matches consistently showcase strong home-field edges, with hosts winning roughly 45% of league games due to travel fatigue, altitude, and passionate local support. Newells’ historic strength at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa—where they’ve lost just twice in their last 15 league outings—contrasts sharply with Tigre’s road struggles; the visitors have conceded multiple goals in four of their past five away fixtures. Tactically, Newells’ organized midfield should dominate possession against a Tigre side that ranks among the league’s weakest in ball retention. While Tigre’s scrappy counter-attacks (3.15) occasionally surprise, their 31% road win rate over three seasons makes an away victory improbable. The draw (3.10) holds moderate appeal statistically but offers negative expected value when accounting for Newells’ pressing urgency in late-season fixtures. With odds implying just a 39% home win probability against our projection of 45%, this wager delivers an 8% positive expected return—a rare edge in tightly priced South American markets.