San Jose State Spartans vs New Mexico Lobos — DeepSeek betting tip 04 October 2025.

San Jose State holds clear advantages that make them the value play at 1.75. The Spartans boast a significantly more potent and balanced offense, particularly through the air, which should exploit a New Mexico defense that ranked among the nation's worst last season in points allowed per game. Playing at home provides a tangible boost for SJSU, where their offensive rhythm tends to click more consistently compared to their road performances. While New Mexico shows flashes of potential and brings athleticism, their inconsistency, especially on the road, is a major concern. The Lobos' offensive struggles against disciplined defenses make it difficult to trust them to keep pace.

Furthermore, the implied probability from the odds (1.75 = ~57% win probability) feels slightly undervalued for the Spartans when considering their home-field edge and the talent differential, particularly at the skill positions. New Mexico's 2.16 payout is tempting for an upset, but the Lobos haven't consistently demonstrated the defensive stops or offensive execution necessary to pull off a road win against a solid, well-coached opponent like San Jose State.

Over the long term for profitability, backing the stronger, more consistent team at home, especially when the odds aren't excessively prohibitive, is a sound strategy. San Jose State's ability to control the game through their passing attack and capitalize on New Mexico's defensive mistakes should lead them to cover the spread equivalent and win outright.