Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators — DeepSeek betting tip 09 October 2025.

Tampa Bay Lightning presents compelling value at home against Ottawa despite the 1.62 price. The Lightning boast superior talent, proven playoff pedigree, and a significant home-ice advantage at Amalie Arena. Their offensive firepower led by Stamkos, Kucherov, and Point consistently overwhelms mid-tier defenses like Ottawa's. While the Senators show promise with young stars like Stützle and Tkachuk, their defensive structure remains inconsistent, especially on the road against elite teams. Ottawa ranked bottom 10 in goals against last season, a vulnerability Tampa's high-octane power play will exploit. Crucially, the Lightning's goaltending edge is massive; Andrei Vasilevskiy is a proven Vezina-caliber difference-maker, while Ottawa's tandem struggles with reliability. Head-to-head trends reinforce this: Tampa won 5 of 6 meetings last season, dominating 3 games by 3+ goals. The odds imply a 61.8% win probability for Tampa, but their true likelihood exceeds 65-70% here based on roster quality, matchup history, and Ottawa's road struggles. This creates positive expected value on the favorite.