Usman Nurmagomedov vs Paul Hughes — DeepSeek betting tip 03 October 2025.

Usman Nurmagomedov represents a significantly safer and more valuable bet at 1.49 compared to Paul Hughes at 2.63. While Hughes is undoubtedly a talented, aggressive striker with a solid Cage Warriors pedigree and the potential to cause early problems, the gap in proven elite-level competition and grappling prowess heavily favors Nurmagomedov. Usman possesses the hallmark Nurmagomedov wrestling pedigree, exceptional top control, and suffocating pressure. He consistently demonstrates the ability to dictate where the fight takes place, nullifying dangerous strikers by forcing clinch exchanges and ground battles. Hughes, despite his toughness and finishing ability, hasn't faced a relentless grappler of Usman's caliber operating at the highest level of the sport. Hughes' path to victory likely requires a clean KO within the first two rounds before Usman imposes his grappling dominance, which is a much lower percentage outcome than Usman methodically wearing Hughes down. The odds imply a win probability of roughly 67% for Usman, which feels accurate or even slightly undervalued given his stylistic advantages and pedigree. For consistent profitability, favoring high-percentage favorites like Nurmagomedov, whose skillset directly counters the underdog's strengths, is a more sustainable strategy than chasing the larger payout on Hughes where the risk outweighs the potential reward.