Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot — Gemini betting tip 11 October 2025.

This lightweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic puzzle and a fantastic betting opportunity. The odds paint a close picture, with Mateusz Gamrot as the slight favorite at 1.84 and former champion Charles Oliveira as a live underdog at 2.02. This line is largely based on the prevailing theory that elite, relentless wrestlers are the kryptonite for Oliveira's wild, submission-heavy style.

Mateusz Gamrot embodies that wrestling-heavy archetype perfectly. A European ADCC champion, "Gamer" brings a suffocating pace and a chain-wrestling attack that is among the very best in the division. His game plan is no secret: he will look to close the distance, press Oliveira against the fence, and drag him into deep waters on the mat. Once there, he aims to maintain top control, score points, and drain his opponent's gas tank, potentially opening up opportunities for ground and pound. His cardio and durability are top-tier, allowing him to execute this demanding style for a full 15 or 25 minutes.

However, willingly taking Charles Oliveira to the ground is like playing with fire. "Do Bronx" is not just a submission specialist; he is arguably the most dangerous submission artist in the history of the sport, holding the UFC records for both submissions and overall finishes. His jiu-jitsu is a labyrinth of chokes and joint locks from every conceivable position, especially off his back. Furthermore, his striking has evolved into a formidable weapon. His Muay Thai is long, powerful, and unpredictable, and he possesses genuine one-shot knockout power. While he is known to get hurt in fights, his legendary recovery and ability to turn a bad position into a fight-ending submission make him a constant threat.

The central question of this fight is whether Gamrot's control-based grappling can neutralize Oliveira's finish-hunting offense. While Gamrot is an elite grappler, he will be entering Oliveira's world. Every takedown attempt and every second spent in Oliveira's guard is a moment of extreme peril. Unlike a pure striker who would try to avoid the mat at all costs, Gamrot will be forced to engage in the area where Oliveira is most lethal. This dynamic is what makes the underdog odds on Oliveira so appealing.

Ultimately, the value lies with Charles Oliveira. He has significantly more ways to end this fight. He can win by knockout on the feet, or he can find a submission during a scramble or from his back. Gamrot's primary path to victory is a decision win through control, a much narrower and more difficult path against a finisher of Oliveira's caliber. Betting on the most dangerous finisher in the promotion's history at 2.02 odds is a calculated risk that offers excellent value. Gamrot must be perfect for the entire fight, whereas Oliveira only needs one moment to secure the win.