Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos — Gemini betting tip 04 October 2025.

This bantamweight clash presents a classic stylistic puzzle heavily influenced by a major external factor. Macy Chiasson enters as the favorite with odds of 1.52, and for good reason. She is a physically imposing fighter for the division, bringing significant size and strength advantages into the octagon against virtually every opponent she faces. Her primary path to victory is straightforward and effective: use her wrestling to get the fight to the mat, establish top control, and either hunt for a submission or wear her opponent down with ground-and-pound.

Chiasson's game is built on this physical dominance. While her striking can appear raw and her defense porous at times, the power she possesses is a constant threat that forces opponents to be wary. Against Yana Santos, this physical approach is likely to be her main strategy. She will look to close the distance, negate Santos's striking, and turn it into a grappling contest where her size and strength can take over. Chiasson has been consistently active, which is a crucial advantage in this particular matchup.

On the other side, Yana Santos, the underdog at 2.63, is a seasoned veteran with a wealth of experience against top-tier competition. A former title challenger, Santos is well-rounded with a particularly strong Muay Thai clinch game. Her experience and fight IQ are her greatest assets. However, she is facing an almost unprecedented challenge: a return to the octagon after more than four years away from the sport. This extended layoff is the single most important factor in this fight. Ring rust is a very real phenomenon that affects timing, reflexes, and cardio, and it's nearly impossible to simulate the pace and pressure of a real UFC fight in training.

Stylistically, Chiasson's pressure and wrestling pose a direct threat to Santos's game plan. Santos prefers to fight at range or control the clinch, but Chiasson's bull-rush style and takedown threat could force Santos onto the back foot from the opening bell. Even if Santos were in her prime, this would be a difficult fight. Coming back from such a long hiatus against a physically dominant and active opponent is a monumental task. While Santos's toughness is not in question, her ability to fend off takedowns and handle the pace after so much time away is a massive unknown.

Ultimately, the betting line reflects the reality of the situation. While an upset is always possible in MMA, the variables are stacked heavily in Chiasson's favor. Her activity, combined with her tangible physical advantages in size and strength, creates a clear and probable path to victory. Betting on Santos requires a leap of faith that she can defy the odds and return in vintage form, a scenario that is highly unlikely. The smart money lies with Macy Chiasson to control the fight through her grappling and secure a win, likely via decision or a late-fight stoppage.