Marco Novák vs Daniel Solaja — Gemini betting tip 04 October 2025.

This main event presents a classic and compelling clash of styles between Marco Novák and Daniel Solaja, a matchup that has bettors and fans divided. On one side, we have Marco Novák, the favorite with odds hovering around 1.57. Novák's path to victory is clear and well-established: he is a relentless grappler with a suffocating top game. His strategy rarely deviates. He'll look to close the distance, press Solaja against the cage, and relentlessly pursue takedowns. Once on the mat, Novák is a master of control, utilizing heavy ground-and-pound to wear down his opponents and hunt for submissions. His cardio is proven, and he can maintain a grueling pace for three full rounds, making him a nightmare for fighters with questionable takedown defense.

However, the odds on Novák don't tell the whole story. While his wrestling is elite, his striking defense has shown holes in previous fights. He tends to move forward in straight lines with his chin exposed, a dangerous habit against a striker of Daniel Solaja's caliber. This is where the value in this matchup lies. Solaja enters as the underdog at 2.25, and for good reason if you only look at his ground game. He is not a decorated wrestler and will be at a significant disadvantage if this fight becomes a grappling-heavy affair.

Where Solaja shines, however, is on the feet. He is a technical, powerful kickboxer with legitimate one-punch knockout power. His footwork is sharp, and he excels at maintaining distance and countering aggressive opponents. Every second this fight stays standing, the danger for Novák increases exponentially. Solaja's entire game plan will revolve around stuffing the first few takedown attempts and making Novák pay for every entry. If he can force Novák to hesitate or respect his power early, the entire dynamic of the fight shifts in his favor.

Ultimately, this bet comes down to value. Novák has a clear path to a grinding decision victory or a late-fight stoppage on the ground. However, the 2.25 odds on Solaja are too tempting to ignore. He possesses the single most decisive weapon in this fight: knockout power. Novák has to be perfect for 15 minutes, whereas Solaja only needs one clean opening to end the fight. Given Novák's defensive liabilities on the feet, we believe there's a greater than 44.4% chance (implied by the 2.25 odds) that Solaja finds that opening. We are backing the underdog to weather the early storm and land a fight-altering blow.