Pouya Rahmani vs Slim Trabelsi — Gemini betting tip 03 October 2025.

This heavyweight clash presents a classic MMA puzzle: the specialist versus the well-rounded fighter. Pouya Rahmani, the Iranian powerhouse, enters as the significant favorite at 1.32, and it's easy to see why bookmakers are high on him. His pedigree is rooted in world-class wrestling, and he translates that into a suffocating and physically imposing grappling game inside the cage. Rahmani's primary strategy is no secret: he wants to close the distance, get his hands on his opponent, and drag the fight into his world on the canvas. Once there, his top control and ground-and-pound are devastating. He is a true force of nature whose raw strength can overwhelm opponents who aren't prepared for that level of physicality.

However, a price of 1.32 implies a near-certainty that feels misplaced against an opponent of Slim Trabelsi's caliber. Trabelsi, the underdog at a tempting 3.20, is far from a mere stepping stone. The Tunisian fighter also boasts a strong wrestling background, which is the crucial first line of defense against Rahmani's primary weapon. Unlike Rahmani, Trabelsi has dedicated significant time to rounding out his game, particularly his striking. He's shown a competent jab, good footwork for a heavyweight, and the power to end a fight on the feet. He is the more complete mixed martial artist in this contest.

The fight will likely be decided by whether Trabelsi can keep it standing. Can he use his movement and striking to manage distance and punish Rahmani's entries? And if the fight does hit the mat, is his defensive wrestling strong enough to survive and get back to his feet? The evidence suggests he has a very real chance. Rahmani's striking is still a work in progress, and his gas tank has been a concern in fights that extend beyond the first round. If Trabelsi can weather the initial storm and drag the powerful Iranian into deeper waters, his superior cardio and more diverse offensive toolkit could begin to take over.

This is a value play. While Rahmani's path to victory is clear and dominant, it's also predictable. Trabelsi has more ways to win this fight. He can win by knockout, he can win by out-working Rahmani for a decision, and his own grappling credentials give him a non-zero chance of neutralizing Rahmani's A-game. The odds are simply too wide here. Betting on a specialist at such a steep price is risky, and the value lies squarely with the skilled underdog who has the tools to dismantle that specialized approach.