Saimon Oliveira vs Luan Lacerda — Gemini betting tip 11 October 2025.

In this intriguing all-Brazilian bantamweight clash, we see two UFC veterans looking to rebuild momentum on the regional circuit. Luan Lacerda enters as the significant favorite with odds at 1.41, and for good reason. His skill set presents a difficult stylistic puzzle for Saimon Oliveira, who comes in as the underdog at 3.05.

Luan "Tarzan" Lacerda is a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt whose entire game is built around getting his opponents to the canvas and hunting for submissions. While his UFC tenure was a disappointing 0-2, it's crucial to consider the level of competition he faced in Cody Stamann and Da'Mon Blackshear—two very durable and well-rounded fighters. Before his UFC call-up, Lacerda was on a tear, amassing a 10-fight win streak, with the majority of those victories coming by way of submission. His path to victory is clear and consistent: pressure, takedown, submission. He is relentless in his pursuit of grappling exchanges and is a master of transitions and control on the mat. This matchup against Oliveira seems tailor-made for him to get back to his winning ways and showcase his primary weapon.

Saimon Oliveira is by no means an easy out. He is also a UFC veteran, holding a 1-1 record in the promotion with a submission win of his own. Oliveira is arguably the more comfortable and dangerous striker of the two. He possesses good power and technique on the feet and will likely look to keep this fight standing where he holds a distinct advantage. His best chance at pulling off the upset is to utilize his footwork, manage distance effectively, and punish Lacerda every time he attempts to close the distance for a takedown. If Oliveira can successfully defend the takedowns and force Lacerda into a kickboxing match, the odds could swing dramatically in his favor.

However, the core of this fight boils down to a classic grappler versus striker dynamic, with the caveat that both men are skilled on the ground. The critical question is whether Oliveira's takedown defense and defensive jiu-jitsu are strong enough to neutralize Lacerda's world-class submission game. Lacerda has proven he can take durable opponents to the ground, and once there, he is incredibly dangerous. Oliveira has been taken down in the past, and while he is competent off his back, he is not on the same level as Lacerda in that realm. Expect Lacerda to weather an early storm, find his entry for a takedown, and eventually overwhelm Oliveira with his grappling pressure, leading to a submission or a dominant decision victory.