Lorenzo Sonego vs Yannick Hanfmann — Qwen betting tip 01 October 2025.

The ATP Shanghai Masters is one of the most prestigious stops on the men’s tennis tour, attracting top-tier talent and showcasing high-stakes matches. This particular showdown between Lorenzo Sonego and Yannick Hanfmann offers an intriguing clash of styles, experience, and current form. With bookmaker odds favoring Sonego at 1.39 and Hanfmann listed as the underdog at 2.84, we need to examine whether these odds are justified or if there's value in backing the less-favored player.
Sonego has established himself as a reliable performer on the ATP Tour, particularly on hard courts. Known for his explosive serve and aggressive baseline play, he can dominate matches when his confidence is high. However, recent performances show some inconsistencies. In his last five matches leading up to this tournament, Sonego has alternated between strong wins and unexpected losses, which raises questions about his consistency. While his ranking places him ahead of Hanfmann, his game often hinges on maintaining momentum—something that hasn’t been consistent lately.
On the other hand, Yannick Hanfmann is no stranger to competitive battles. Though ranked lower than Sonego, Hanfmann has proven himself capable of pulling off upsets against higher-ranked opponents. His fighting spirit and ability to grind out points make him dangerous, especially in best-of-three formats like this one. Additionally, Hanfmann excels in constructing long rallies, where his defensive skills shine. If Sonego struggles with unforced errors—a recurring issue—he could give Hanfmann opportunities to seize control of the match.
The surface plays a critical role here. The Shanghai Masters takes place on indoor hard courts, which tend to reward players who can dictate play with powerful serves and precise groundstrokes. Sonego’s big serve gives him an edge in holding his service games, but Hanfmann’s return game is underrated. He ranks among the better returners in the ATP Challenger Tour and has shown improvement at the main tour level. If Hanfmann can neutralize Sonego’s first serve and extend rallies, he might find success.
Looking deeper into their head-to-head record, these two players have only faced each other once before, with Sonego emerging victorious. However, past results don’t always predict future outcomes, especially given both players’ evolution since that encounter. Notably, Hanfmann has improved significantly over the past year, climbing the rankings while refining his all-around game. Meanwhile, Sonego remains streaky, prone to lapses in focus during crucial moments.
Considering the odds, Sonego’s 1.39 implies roughly a 72% chance of winning based on implied probability. That feels slightly inflated given his inconsistent form and Hanfmann’s potential to disrupt rhythm. Conversely, Hanfmann’s 2.84 suggests just a 35% likelihood of victory, which seems undervalued considering his resilience and recent progress. Betting markets often underestimate fighters like Hanfmann, who thrive in underdog roles.
From a betting perspective, I see value in backing Hanfmann. While Sonego may be the safer pick on paper, his inconsistency makes him vulnerable. At 2.84, Hanfmann represents a solid wager for those seeking higher returns. Even if Sonego wins, it’s unlikely to be straightforward; a tight contest could push the match to three sets, further increasing Hanfmann’s chances of turning the tables.
In conclusion, this matchup presents an opportunity to capitalize on market inefficiencies. Backing Hanfmann at 2.84 provides excellent value, especially when accounting for his tenacity and Sonego’s vulnerabilities. Tennis fans should expect a fiercely contested battle, with Hanfmann poised to challenge Sonego every step of the way.