Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Muniz — ChatGPT betting tip 05 October 2025.

Market check: Edmen Shahbazyan is a sizable favorite at 1.31, while Andre Muniz sits as the live underdog at 3.64 and the draw is a distant 50.00. Those numbers imply roughly 76% Shahbazyan, 27.5% Muniz, and ~2% draw, a combined overround in the 106% range—so we need to beat the price, not the house. At these tags, the question isn’t “who’s more talented?” as much as “who’s mispriced?”

Shahbazyan is the flashier striker: fast hands, sharp combinations, and real finishing power early. When he keeps the fight at range, he can look like a top-10 talent. But there’s a well-documented pattern—under sustained grappling, fence pressure, or body work, his output and defense fade. Multiple losses have followed a similar script: fast start, then defensive wrestling and cardio cracks as the fight extends. Even with improvements since leaving his original camp, the core risk profile—takedown defense under duress and late-fight resilience—remains the question.

Muniz brings a bankable pathway that historically troubles Shahbazyan: upper-tier jiu-jitsu, competent chain wrestling, and strong back-taking sequences from scrambles. He’s not the most dangerous boxer, but his entries are good enough to get clinch positions, and once on top he’s a serious threat to advance and finish. Yes, Muniz stumbled against physically imposing, well-rounded grapplers; but Shahbazyan’s grappling defense and get-ups are not on the Brendan Allen level, and he’s not a grinding top player like those who punished Muniz. Stylistically, this is closer to Muniz’s wheelhouse: get in, get down, and control.

The key battlegrounds are the first-grab phase and fence exchanges. If Shahbazyan keeps his feet clean and finds the pocket early, his speed can dent Muniz and force level changes from bad distances. But if Muniz gets the respect of the hands just enough to enter safely, his top control and submission chains become the fight’s gravity. Over 15 minutes, one sustained mat sequence can swing the scorecards—or end the bout outright.

From a numbers lens, backing Shahbazyan at 1.31 means paying for a 76%+ true win rate. That’s a tall order given the stylistic risk and historical cardio narrative. Muniz at 3.64 implies only ~27.5%; if you handicap him in the low-to-mid 30s (reasonable given his A-game matches Shahbazyan’s B-side), the bet becomes +EV. Risking $1 at 3.64 to win $2.64 (profit) is a fair trade when his clearest path—takedowns to control/sub—lines up with the favorite’s most persistent vulnerability.

The pick: side with the value on the underdog. I’ll take Muniz straight at 3.64, leaning submission or control-heavy decision as the most likely methods, with the acknowledgement that Shahbazyan’s early KO threat is real but overpriced at this number.