Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen — ChatGPT betting tip 05 October 2025.

This is a classic clash of styles: Merab Dvalishvili’s relentless chain wrestling and bottomless gas tank against Cory Sandhagen’s rangy footwork, surgical striking, and ever-improving grappling. The market is heavily tilted toward Merab at 1.28, pricing him like a near lock, while Sandhagen sits at a tempting 3.92 and the draw at a very long 43.00.

Merab’s case is obvious. He overwhelms with volume takedown attempts, mat returns, and shoulder-to-shoulder grinding that steals rounds and breaks rhythm. Recent wins over elite names like Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, and Henry Cejudo reinforce that he can impose his game on world-class opposition over 25 minutes. He’s durable, disciplined, and fights at a pace few can match without wilting.

But Sandhagen is no ordinary underdog. He’s a long, creative striker who punishes entries with intercepting knees and uppercuts, and he’s become far more pragmatic in recent years—willing to wrestle offensively when the read is there and to manage clock and space smartly. His performances against Marlon Vera and Rob Font showed a mature, score-friendly approach, mixing angles, stance switches, and opportunistic grappling.

Key nuance: modern judging rewards damage over mere control. Merab can secure positions, but Cory’s elbows, knees, and slicing counters in transitions can produce the most memorable moments of rounds. If Sandhagen keeps his back off the fence, wins first contact with frames and underhooks, and punishes level changes, he can flip the optics—making Merab’s takedowns feel like tax-paying entries rather than momentum swings.

Over five rounds, variance rises, which generally benefits the underdog with dynamic finishing tools and momentum-stealing sequences. Sandhagen’s cardio is trustworthy, and he’s historically adept at adjusting mid-fight. Even if Merab racks up attempts, Sandhagen’s ability to create separation, sting with clean counters, and threaten front-headlock series can turn a handful of scrambles into round-winning damage.

From a betting perspective, the line is the story. 1.28 implies a win probability in the high 70s for Merab—aggressive for a matchup against an A-tier opponent with proven five-round tools. 3.92 pegs Sandhagen in the mid-20s; that undervalues his paths to victory via damage-centric optics, intercepting knees/uppercuts, and late-fight momentum. The draw at 43.00 is a pass—MMA draws are too rare to justify it.

At these numbers, the sharp side for a $1 stab is Sandhagen. You’re not betting that Merab is overrated as a fighter—you’re betting that this particular price overshoots his true edge. Take the dog and live with the grindy sweat: the value sits on Cory.