Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen — DeepSeek betting tip 05 October 2025.

Merab Dvalishvili enters this matchup as a heavy favorite for compelling stylistic reasons. His relentless wrestling pressure and cardio are unparalleled in the bantamweight division – he averages over 7 takedowns per 15 minutes and has demonstrated an inhuman gas tank in five-round wars. This spells trouble for Cory Sandhagen, who despite elite technical striking and solid takedown defense (75% in UFC), historically struggles against elite chain wrestlers like Aljamain Sterling. Sandhagen's five-inch reach advantage offers a theoretical path to victory through distance control and counters, but Merab's durability and ability to absorb punishment (evidenced in his comeback against Marlon Moraes) mitigate this threat.

Statistically, Sandhagen's takedown defense plummets after repeated grappling exchanges – a fatal flaw against Merab's non-stop pressure. Fight metrics show Sandhagen was controlled for over 10 minutes by Yan and Sterling; Merab's superior volume and chain-attack persistence will likely produce even more dominant control time. At implied odds of 1.28 (73.8% probability), the market slightly undervalues Merab's actual win probability, which we project near 80% based on stylistic dominance and Sandhagen's specific defensive regression against elite wrestlers.

While Sandhagen's 3.92 underdog odds offer theoretical value for a puncher's chance, his 19% career knockout rate against top competition doesn't justify the risk. Merab's safest route is a decision win (15 of his 17 UFC rounds went to scorec cards), making the steep price palatable for positive expected value over repeated bets. The Georgian's pace, proven against higher-caliber opposition than Sandhagen's recent wins over Font and Vera, should systematically break down the challenger's defenses.