Clayton Carpenter vs Jafel Filho — Gemini betting tip 11 October 2025.

This flyweight bout presents a fascinating clash of styles and is rightly priced as a near pick'em, with Clayton Carpenter at 1.92 and Jafel Filho at 1.93. This is a classic striker versus grappler matchup, but with modern MMA nuances that make it far more complex and compelling for bettors.

Clayton "Concrete" Carpenter enters this contest with an unblemished professional record, showcasing a well-rounded skill set that has overwhelmed his opponents thus far. His primary weapon is his striking. Carpenter is a high-volume, technical kickboxer who uses constant pressure and a diverse arsenal of attacks to break his opponents down. He maintains a relentless pace, which could be a significant factor against a fighter like Filho, who has shown some cardio vulnerabilities in the past, especially when his grappling attempts are consistently thwarted. Carpenter's wrestling is also solid, used more defensively to keep the fight in his preferred domain on the feet. His ability to stuff takedowns will be the single most important key to victory for him.

On the other side, Jafel "Pastor" Filho is a bona fide submission artist with a terrifying ground game. A decorated BJJ black belt, Filho possesses fight-ending ability from any position on the mat. We saw his incredible danger and toughness in his UFC debut against Muhammad Mokaev, where he nearly secured a kneebar from a disadvantageous position and refused to tap to a brutal neck crank. He is not just a grappler, however; Filho has legitimate one-punch knockout power, which forces opponents to respect his hands and can create openings for him to close the distance and initiate a takedown. His path to victory is clear: get this fight to the canvas where he holds a significant advantage.

The fight will be decided by who can dictate the geography of the octagon. If Carpenter can use his footwork, manage distance effectively, and defend the initial takedown attempts from Filho, he should be able to rack up points with his superior striking volume. He will need to be cautious not to get drawn into a wild brawl, as that could lead to a clinch and a trip to the mat. For Filho, the challenge will be navigating Carpenter's range to get inside. If he expends too much energy unsuccessfully chasing takedowns in the first round, he could be a sitting duck for Carpenter's high-output striking in the later stages of the fight.

Given the razor-thin odds, the value lies in identifying the more reliable path to victory. While Filho's finishing ability makes him a live dog in any exchange, Carpenter's disciplined approach, cardio advantage, and takedown defense seem more likely to hold up over 15 minutes. I predict Carpenter will successfully defend the majority of takedown attempts, control the fight at range, and out-land Filho significantly to earn a clear-cut unanimous decision.