Irina Alekseeva vs Beatriz Mesquita — Gemini betting tip 11 October 2025.

This matchup presents a fascinating, albeit likely one-sided, clash of grappling disciplines. On one side, we have Irina Alekseeva, a powerful and aggressive fighter with a strong background in Sambo and Judo. On the other, we have Beatriz Mesquita, a living legend in the world of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and arguably the most decorated female submission grappler of all time.

The betting lines tell a clear story, with Mesquita positioned as a prohibitive favorite at 1.17. This isn't an overreaction; it's a calculated assessment of an overwhelming skill disparity in the most probable area where this fight will take place: the ground. Mesquita is a multi-time ADCC and IBJJF world champion. Her technique, transitions, and submission arsenal are on a plane that very few in MMA, male or female, can comprehend, let alone defend against.

Irina Alekseeva's path to victory is incredibly narrow. As the significant underdog with odds around 5.52, her only realistic chance is to leverage her physical strength to keep the fight standing and land a fight-altering power shot. She has shown she can be wild and aggressive on the feet, which could create an opening for a knockout. However, this same aggression could be her downfall, as it will also create openings for Mesquita to clinch and drag the fight to the mat.

Once the fight hits the canvas, the clock will start ticking for Alekseeva. While her Sambo base provides some grappling defense, it is simply not equipped to handle the elite, specialized submission-hunting style of a BJJ master like Mesquita. Every second on the ground with Mesquita is a moment of profound danger. We anticipate Mesquita will weather any early storm, secure a takedown or pull guard, and methodically work her way to a submission victory. The value isn't great on a straight bet, but the outcome feels almost inevitable.