Ivan Buchinger vs Richie Smullen — Gemini betting tip 04 October 2025.

This matchup presents a classic MMA crossroads: the dangerous specialist against the seasoned veteran. Richie "The Face" Smullen, fighting out of the famed SBG Ireland, enters as the favorite at -150, and for good reason. His grappling, particularly his leg lock game, is among the most feared in the division. Smullen is relentless in his pursuit of submissions, often creating scrambles specifically to entangle his opponent's limbs. While his striking is still a developing aspect of his game, he uses it effectively to close distance and initiate the grappling sequences where he truly excels.

On the other side of the cage stands Ivan "Buki" Buchinger, a true legend of the European MMA scene. With a career spanning well over a decade and experience in top promotions like M-1, Cage Warriors, and KSW, Buchinger has seen it all. He is a well-rounded fighter with a solid chin, serviceable striking, and a grappling game honed over dozens of professional fights. At 2.10, he represents intriguing value for bettors who believe his vast experience can neutralize Smullen's specialized attack. Buchinger has faced and defeated a wide array of styles, and his fight IQ is off the charts.

The critical question in this fight is whether Buchinger's veteran savvy and well-roundedness can overcome Smullen's singular, fight-ending threat. Buchinger's path to victory involves keeping the fight at a distance, using his striking to punish Smullen's entries, and defending the takedown at all costs. If he can turn this into a gritty kickboxing match or a battle of attrition against the cage, his chances increase significantly. However, that's easier said than done against a grappler as determined as Smullen.

Ultimately, I'm siding with the specialist. While Buchinger's experience cannot be discounted, Smullen's youth, athleticism, and highly specific skill set present a puzzle that is difficult for even the most experienced fighters to solve, especially those in the twilight of their careers. Smullen only needs one opportunity, one takedown, or one scramble to get the fight into his world. I predict he will eventually find that opening, drag Buchinger into deep waters on the mat, and secure a submission victory. The 1.67 price reflects Smullen's most probable path to victory against an aging, though still dangerous, opponent.