Betting tips from AI for Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry, 23 January 2026.

Bublik is the clear choice here. Dimers' model gives him an 82% shot and he's rolling into his first Australian Open third round after straight-sets demolitions of Brooksby and Fucsovics; his serve and free-hitting offense match up well and the market price 1.28 still offers value versus that edge.

Etcheverry (4.06) is battle-tested—a five-set opener and a comfortable win over Fery—and The Stats Zone rightly warns this could stretch past 3.5 sets. Still, his No.62 ranking and heavier minutes reduce his upset probability. On a $1 flat bet seeking positive EV, back Alexander Bublik given the model gap and form.

Alexander Bublik enters this Australian Open third-round clash radiating confidence, fresh off two straight-sets victories and a "sizzling 2025" that propelled him to a career-high No. 10. Dimers' model reflects this dominance, giving Bublik an impressive 82% win probability, a figure that provides significant confidence despite his 1.28 odds. While Tomas Martin Etcheverry, a "live underdog" with "raw firepower," has shown grit, particularly grinding through a five-set opener, he faces a significant challenge.

The Stats Zone analysts predict a "marathon battle," tipping over 3.5 sets, suggesting Etcheverry could push Bublik. This aligns with his ability to stretch matches, but Bublik’s current form and explosive game make him the clear favorite. He's chasing a fourth major last-16 berth, and his momentum is undeniable. Despite Etcheverry's potential to stretch the match, Bublik's quality should ultimately prevail.

Alexander Bublik enters this third-round clash riding an impressive wave of momentum, having dismantled both Brooksby and Fucsovics in straight sets. His recent ascent to a career-high No. 10 ranking isn't accidental—his explosive game has matured significantly throughout 2025.

Etcheverry, while capable of causing upsets as evidenced by his grinding five-set opener, faces an uphill battle against the in-form Kazakh. At 4.06, the Argentine offers tempting underdog value, but Dimers' model giving Bublik an 82% win probability aligns with the 1.28 odds.

Their contrasting styles should produce an entertaining contest. Bublik's firepower and newfound consistency will likely overcome Etcheverry's defensive grit. While analysts at The Stats Zone predict this could extend beyond three sets, Bublik's momentum and superior hard-court pedigree make him the smart money, especially as he chases a fourth major last-16 appearance in his last five attempts.

Alexander Bublik enters this Australian Open third-round clash as the clear favorite, riding a wave of momentum that has propelled him to a career-high No. 10 ranking after a stellar 2025. Fresh off straight-sets thrashings of Brooksby and Fucsovics, Bublik's explosive game is firing on all cylinders in Melbourne, marking his first-ever third-round appearance here. The Dimers model backs him with an 82% win probability, highlighting a strong edge even in the opening set against underdog Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

Etcheverry, ranked No. 62, has shown grit by grinding through a five-set opener before cruising past Fery, but his tougher path and lower seeding make him a live underdog at 4.06. While he packs raw firepower to potentially stretch this to four or five sets—as tipped by The Stats Zone—Bublik's hot streak and prior edge over Etcheverry on clay last year tilt the scales decisively.

With Bublik at 1.28, the value lies in backing the world No. 10 to advance, potentially sparking a major breakthrough in his quest for a fourth last-16 berth. Expect Bublik's sizzling form to overpower Etcheverry's resilience in a competitive but ultimately one-sided affair.

Alexander Bublik storms into this third-round match with scorching form, having dismantled opponents in straight sets to reach a career-high No. 10 ranking. Dimers' model heavily favors him at an 82% win probability, signaling his explosive game could mirror a Wawrinka-esque major surge.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry, ranked No. 62, showcased resilience by surviving a five-set opener, but his grueling path and lower seed make him a live underdog with raw power to push this to four or five sets, as analysts predict.
Given Bublik's momentum and higher ceiling, betting on him at 1.28 offers value despite Etcheverry's grit, making Bublik the likely victor in a potential marathon.

Alexander Bublik enters this match with a significant edge, as evidenced by the bookmakers' odds and recent form. Bublik, ranked No. 10 in the world, has been on a roll, dispatching his previous opponents in straight sets. His momentum and high ranking suggest he is in top form, making him a formidable opponent for Etcheverry. \\[n]Tomas Martin Etcheverry, while showing grit and determination, has had a more challenging path to the third round. His five-set battle in the first round and subsequent win over Fery indicate he can push matches to the limit. However, his lower ranking and less consistent performance make it tough to back him against a player of Bublik's caliber. \\[n]The historical data and current form point towards Bublik as the clear favorite. Despite Etcheverry's potential to stretch the match, Bublik's explosive game and recent success make him the safer bet. The odds of 1.28 for Bublik, though not offering the best value, reflect the high probability of his victory. Given the context and the players' recent performances, backing Bublik is the most logical choice.