Betting tips from AI for Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson, 14 December 2025.

Gillian Robertson is the clearer value here. The book lists her at 1.53 while Amanda Lemos sits at 2.63. Recent coverage highlights Robertson’s elite submission game, a 40% takedown success rate and improved positional control, plus a fresh stoppage over Marina Rodriguez—attributes tailor-made to neutralize Lemos’ striking.

Lemos remains dangerous on the feet and showed life after a loss to Suárez, but she’s 38 and vulnerable to grapplers who can grind and threaten early subs. Expect Robertson to chase takedowns, frustrate the stand-up, and either lock up a late submission or a ground-and-pound finish. Bet the favorite: Gillian Robertson.

This strawweight clash at UFC Vegas 112 pits Amanda Lemos' powerful striking against Gillian Robertson's elite grappling, and the smart money is firmly on the latter. Bookmakers have Robertson as the favorite at 1.53, a sentiment echoed by ClutchPoints analysts who laud her submission game and 40% takedown success. They predict Lemos' striking won't be enough to keep this fight standing for long.

Robertson, fresh off a dominant ground-and-pound stoppage, boasts superior strike defense at 56% and a higher rate of submission attempts per fight. Her savage ground control is expected to exploit Lemos' vulnerabilities, especially after Lemos' recent unanimous decision loss to top-ranked Tatiana Suarez. While Lemos has shown dazzling striking clinics, Robertson's path to victory on the mat is clear and well-supported by her record and recent performances. This looks like a grappler's dream match, with Robertson poised to grind out a win.

This strawweight clash features a classic striker vs. grappler matchup that heavily favors Robertson's ground game. At 1.53, Robertson represents solid value against the aging Lemos (2.63). The 38-year-old Lemos has shown vulnerability to elite grapplers, evidenced by her recent loss to Tatiana Suarez, while Robertson comes in with momentum after dominating Marina Rodriguez on the ground.

Robertson's 40% takedown success rate will be crucial against Lemos' striking-focused approach. Though Lemos possesses dangerous power, Robertson's superior 56% strike defense should help her weather any early storms before securing takedowns. Once on the mat, Robertson's submission prowess (averaging more submission attempts per fight than Lemos) presents a clear path to victory.

The betting markets reflect this reality with Robertson sitting as the rightful favorite. Her ground control and submission skills make her the smart play here, especially considering Lemos' demonstrated difficulties against opponents who can take her down and control her on the canvas.

In this strawweight showdown at UFC Vegas 112, Gillian Robertson steps in as the clear favorite against Amanda Lemos, and for good reason. At 1.53, Robertson's odds reflect her grappling dominance, boasting a 40% takedown success rate and elite submission game that could overwhelm Lemos early. Fresh off a second-round ground-and-pound stoppage of Marina Rodriguez, her 16-8 record pairs with superior strike defense at 56%, edging out Lemos in sub attempts per fight.

Lemos, the 38-year-old southpaw with a 15-5-1 mark, brings power striking that dazzled against Iasmin Lucindo but faltered in a unanimous decision loss to Tatiana Suarez. Analysts at ClutchPoints see Robertson grinding out a mat win, exploiting Lemos' vulnerabilities to keep it grounded and push for an early finish under the total. While Lemos sits at 2.63 as the underdog, her stand-up prowess might not hold against Robertson's savage control.

This grappler's dream matchup favors Robertson to dictate the pace and secure victory, making her the smart play for bettors eyeing value in the favorite's path to a submission or decision.

Gillian Robertson enters as the clear betting favorite at 1.50, and the market support is justified. Her elite submission game and 40% takedown success rate position her perfectly to exploit this grappler's matchup. While Amanda Lemos, at 2.63, possesses dangerous power striking, Robertson's superior ground control and strike defense (56%) should neutralize that threat.

Recent form underscores this: Robertson is riding high off a stoppage win, while Lemos is coming off a loss to a top contender. Robertson's path to grinding out a win on the mat, as analysts predict, looks like the most probable outcome, making her moneyline the sharp play.

This strawweight clash between Amanda Lemos and Gillian Robertson at UFC Vegas 112 presents a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup, but the odds suggest a clear path to victory for Robertson. With her 1.53 betting line, she enters as a strong favorite, reflecting her elite submission game and superior grappling metrics. Robertson’s 40% takedown success rate and 56% strike defense could neutralize Lemos’ power striking, which has struggled against high-level grapplers like Tatiana Suarez.
Lemos, however, is no pushover. The southpaw boasts a respectable 15-5-1 record and demonstrated her striking prowess in her last win over Iasmin Lucindo. Yet, ClutchPoints analysts note that her inability to keep fights standing may spell trouble against Robertson, who thrives on dragging opponents into her world on the mat. Robertson’s recent second-round stoppage of Marina Rodriguez underscores her ability to finish fights early when given control.
While Lemos’ 2.63 odds offer tempting value, her vulnerabilities on the ground make her a risky bet. The draw option at 50.00 is statistically improbable given both fighters' aggressive styles. Robertson’s path to victory seems most plausible through either a submission or ground-and-pound finish, aligning with her historical performance trends.
Considering the dynamics at play, backing Robertson appears to be the smarter wager despite the steep price tag.