Betting tips from AI for Chris Price vs Artūrs Leisāns, 22 November 2025.

Market sentiment is clear heading into Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester: Chris Price is a substantial favorite at 1.17 (recent boards even showed 1.17), while Artūrs Leisāns sits at a punchy 4.60. That pricing implies a heavy lean toward Price, and it aligns with recent form and the narrative from respected voices. Dan Hardy has highlighted Price’s knockout power and composure, and the English crowd should amplify that momentum in the prelim setting. Price has won four of his last five, mostly by knockout, and is ranked #6 in the Cage Warriors lightweight division.

But the underdog is not without live paths. Leisāns is 6-1 with a submission-heavy profile and aggressive grappling. He was stopped by strikes earlier this year, which raises durability concerns, yet it also speaks to the volatility of his fights: when he forces exchanges or scrambles, things can snowball quickly. Hardy warned that Leisāns is dangerous if it hits the mat, and Latvian standout Mairis Briedis echoed confidence in his countryman’s grappling. If Leisāns times early entries, chains takedowns on the fence, or creates a scramble off caught kicks or overhands, his back-taking and choke game are a credible equalizer.

Stylistically, this sets up striker versus grappler dynamics. Price’s clean shots and composure make him the rightful favorite, especially in round one when his power is most acute. However, as minutes accumulate, the probability of an opportunistic mat sequence increases, and with only three rounds, a single dominant grappling stanza can swing scorecards or create a finish window. The BEC Arena crowd will fuel Price, but the pressure can cut both ways: a charged atmosphere sometimes tempts front-runners to overextend, the very moments grapplers capitalize on.

From a betting perspective, the core question is value. Backing Price at 1.17 risks a full dollar to net only cents, which demands an extremely high true win probability to be profitable long term. Leisāns at 4.60 pays meaningfully on a small stake; you need roughly a bit over one-in-five outcomes to break even. Given his submission upside and the inherent variance of MMA—particularly at the prelim level—there is a reasonable case that his real chance sits closer to the mid-20s than the implied low-20s. That modest edge is enough to justify the underdog stab.

Bottom line: Price is the most likely winner, and a quick KO is very plausible. But for a $1 venture seeking maximum expected return, Leisāns at 4.60 is the superior value side due to his clear grappling path and the fight’s volatility. The pick is the underdog, accepting the risk for a better long-run payoff profile.

This Cage Warriors lightweight bout presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic, but the context surrounding the fighters heavily favors one man. Chris Price enters this contest in Manchester not just as the local hero, but as a fighter in devastating form. With four wins in his last five outings, most coming by way of knockout, his reputation as a power puncher is well-earned. His #6 ranking in the division isn't just a number; it reflects a consistent ability to defeat high-level opponents, and his composure under pressure has been noted by seasoned analysts like Dan Hardy.

The odds tell a significant part of the story. Price is a massive favorite at 1.17, indicating overwhelming market confidence. This isn't just hype; it's a reflection of his clear advantages. He'll be backed by a fervent home crowd known for creating an intimidating atmosphere, which can be a significant factor, especially for an international opponent like Artūrs Leisāns. Price’s most direct path to victory is to keep the fight standing, use his reach, and wait for an opening to land the fight-ending blow that he has delivered so many times before.

On the other side, Artūrs Leisāns is the clear underdog at 4.60, but he is far from a hopeless case. His 6-1 record is built on a foundation of aggressive and effective grappling, with the majority of his wins coming via submission. His path to an upset is narrow but clear: he must weather the early storm, close the distance, secure a takedown, and bring the fight into his world on the mat. If Leisāns can get Price to the ground, the entire dynamic of the fight shifts, and his submission skills become a very real threat. Experts like Mairis Briedis believe this grappling prowess is the key to shocking the crowd.

However, the biggest red flag for Leisāns is his chin. His sole professional loss came by knockout, a worrying vulnerability when facing a striker of Price's caliber. To initiate his grappling, Leisāns will have to step into the fire, exposing himself to the very power that has felled many of Price's previous opponents. While the 'nothing to lose' mentality can make an underdog dangerous, it's more likely that Price's superior striking, experience in the promotion, and the energy from the home crowd will be too much to overcome. Expect Price to control the fight on the feet and eventually find the knockout finish.

This lightweight prelim at Cage Warriors 198 presents a classic striker versus grappler matchup, with the odds heavily favoring Chris Price at 1.17 against Artūrs Leisāns at 4.60. The betting market has clearly identified this as a significant skill gap fight, but the value proposition demands deeper examination.

Price enters with excellent momentum, winning four of his last five fights primarily by knockout while holding the #6 ranking in Cage Warriors' lightweight division. His knockout power and composure under pressure make him a formidable opponent, especially fighting at home in Manchester where the crowd energy will be electric. Dan Hardy's analysis highlighting Price's finishing ability reinforces what the tape shows - a dangerous striker who can end fights quickly.

However, Leisāns brings a completely different skill set that could exploit potential weaknesses. With a 6-1 record built primarily on submission victories, the Latvian represents the classic live underdog scenario. His aggressive grappling style poses legitimate threats if he can survive the early storm and drag Price into deep waters. The knockout loss earlier this year is concerning, but it also means he's experienced adversity recently.

The venue factor cannot be understated. Manchester's BEC Arena will be hostile territory for Leisāns, potentially amplifying the pressure on a fighter already facing significant odds. True Geordie's observation about Leisāns having "nothing to lose" is astute - desperate fighters often perform beyond expectations.

While Price's striking advantage and home crowd support make him the logical favorite, the 1.17 odds seem excessive for MMA, where upsets occur regularly. The smart money recognizes Price's clear path to victory through early striking, but Leisāns' submission threat keeps this from being a complete mismatch. Price should win, but the margin suggests the market may be overconfident in what remains a volatile sport.

As we gear up for this intriguing lightweight prelim at Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester's BEC Arena, all eyes are on Chris Price versus Artūrs Leisāns. Price, the local favorite, comes in with a stellar recent record—winning four of his last five fights, mostly by knockout. His power and composure have earned him a spot as the #6 ranked fighter in the division, and the betting odds reflect that confidence with him sitting at 1.17. The home crowd in Manchester is expected to be electric, adding that extra layer of pressure on the Latvian underdog and potentially fueling Price's performance.

On the flip side, Artūrs Leisāns is no slouch. With a 6-1 record and most wins coming via submission, he's a grappling wizard who could turn the tide if the fight hits the mat. His aggressive style has made him a rising prospect, and as Mairis Briedis pointed out on social media, Leisāns has the tools to shock the English crowd. However, his recent knockout loss raises questions about his chin against a heavy hitter like Price. At 4.60, he's a tempting underdog bet for those believing in an upset, especially if he survives the early rounds and drags it into a grappling war, as hinted by podcaster True Geordie.

Analyst Dan Hardy nailed it in his MMA Weekly breakdown: Price's knockout power makes him the clear favorite, but underestimating Leisāns' submissions could be costly. The odds have swung heavily towards Price, now at 1.17 in some spots, showing market faith in his dominance. Still, MMA is unpredictable, and Leisāns has nothing to lose— he's the away fighter in a hostile environment, which might ignite that underdog fire.

From a betting perspective, laying $1 on Price at 1.17 might not yield massive returns, but it's the safer play given his form and home advantage. If you're chasing value, a small wager on Leisāns at 4.60 could pay off big if he pulls off the submission upset. No injuries or scandals to worry about, so this boils down to styles: Price's striking versus Leisāns' ground game. I see Price controlling the stand-up and finishing early, but keep an eye on those grappling exchanges.

Ultimately, the vocal home support and Price's knockout streak tilt this in his favor. For bettors, consider the over/under on rounds— if it goes past the first, Leisāns' chances spike. This matchup has all the makings of an exciting prelim, blending hometown hype with international intrigue.

The lightweight prelim between Chris Price and Artūrs Leisāns at Cage Warriors 198 is shaping up to be a compelling clash of styles, with Price heavily favored at odds of 1.17 and Leisāns positioned as a sizable underdog at 4.60. Expert insights from figures like Dan Hardy emphasize Price's knockout power and composure, but they also caution that Leisāns' submission prowess could turn the tide if the fight goes to the ground. This creates a narrative where Price's striking dominance meets Leisāns' grappling threat, making it a classic matchup that betting enthusiasts should dissect carefully.

Chris Price enters this bout with significant advantages: a recent run of four wins in five fights, mostly by knockout, and a #6 ranking in the Cage Warriors lightweight division. His ability to dictate the pace with precise striking and his experience in high-pressure situations are key factors. The home crowd in Manchester's BEC Arena will amplify his confidence, potentially unsettling Leisāns, who is less accustomed to such environments. Price's strategy likely involves keeping the fight standing and capitalizing on his power early, minimizing the risk of Leisāns' ground game.

Artūrs Leisāns, however, should not be dismissed. With a 6-1 record and most victories coming via submission, he has the tools to surprise if he can close the distance and secure takedowns. Endorsements from Latvian star Mairis Briedis and commentary from True Geordie highlight his resilience and potential to extend the fight into later rounds. Yet, his loss by knockout earlier this year raises concerns about his durability against Price's heavy hands, and the away fighter status in a hostile arena could compound the pressure.

From a betting perspective, the odds reflect strong market confidence in Price, with an implied probability exceeding 85%. Betting on Price at 1.17 offers low risk but minimal profit potential, making it a conservative choice for those prioritizing consistency over high returns. In contrast, Leisāns at 4.60 presents a tantalizing value bet for risk-takers, as his submission skills could exploit any lapses in Price's defense. However, given Price's overall form, home edge, and ability to avoid prolonged ground exchanges, he remains the more probable winner, aligning with expert predictions and statistical trends.

Chris Price enters this bout as a heavy favorite, with odds of 1.17, reflecting his dominant knockout power and recent form. Artūrs Leisāns, on the other hand, is listed at 4.60, underscoring his status as a dangerous underdog who could capitalize on specific scenarios. The betting market clearly favors Price, but the disparity in odds suggests an opportunity to scrutinize whether Leisāns’ grappling-heavy style can disrupt expectations.
Price’s reputation precedes him. A former Cage Warriors champion with four wins in his last five fights—most by knockout—his striking ability is undeniable. Dan Hardy’s comments about Price’s composure and knockout potential align perfectly with his track record. However, Hardy’s warning about Leisāns’ submission game adds nuance to the matchup. If Price gets careless or overconfident, Leisāns could exploit openings on the mat. This dynamic makes the fight intriguing despite the lopsided odds.
Leisāns, hailing from Latvia, brings a 6-1 record into the cage, with most of his victories coming via submission. His aggressive grappling style has earned praise, notably from compatriot Mairis Briedis, who believes Leisāns can shock the crowd if Price falters. True Geordie’s podcast insight further supports this narrative, emphasizing that Leisāns has “nothing to lose” and might turn the fight into a grueling war if he survives early pressure. While Leisāns’ lone loss came by knockout earlier this year, it’s worth noting that Price’s strength lies precisely in delivering devastating strikes early in fights."The venue itself plays a role in shaping expectations. BEC Arena in Manchester is known for its raucous atmosphere, often amplifying home-crowd advantages. With vocal support behind him, Price may feel emboldened to press forward aggressively. Conversely, the environment could weigh heavily on Leisāns, who will need to block out external pressures while executing his game plan. Given his relative inexperience on such stages, this psychological factor cannot be ignored.