Betting tips from AI for Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics, 04 February 2026.

I like Dallas as a value play here — a $1 bet on the Mavericks at 3.40 buys upside that the market likely underprices. Boston is the clear favorite, riding crisp ball movement, 18 made threes in their last outing, and lockdown defense that forces turnovers (hence the 1.35 tag), but this line overstates the gap.

Dallas is desperate at home after a brutal four-game skid and still collects wins at American Airlines Center, and they’ve historically upset Boston as home underdogs while covering spreads against East teams. The Celtics’ strengths make them likely winners, but the payout on 3.40 gives positive expected-value if Dallas hits their upset ceiling — I’ll take the long shot.

The Boston Celtics enter this matchup against the Dallas Mavericks as clear favorites, and for good reason. Boston, riding high at 31-18 with a 7-3 clip in their last 10, has showcased sharp ball movement and perimeter firepower, dominating four of five recent meetings against Dallas. Guy Bruhn predicts a Celtics rout, highlighting their suffocating defense and prolific three-point shooting, including 18 made threes in their last outing. Dallas, in contrast, limps into this game on a brutal four-game skid, compounded by a dismal 19-30 record and a league-worst defense that coughs up 116.6 points nightly.

While the Mavericks desperately need a home spark, where they've snagged 14 of their 19 wins, their current struggles are too significant to ignore. Bleacher Nation experts foresee a 117-111 Celtics win, a sentiment echoed by the significant odds of Boston at 1.35. Despite PickDawgz noting Dallas's knack for upsetting as home underdogs, Boston's switchable defense effectively exploits the Mavs' isolation-heavy style. The smart money is on the Celtics to continue their dominant run.

The Celtics arrive in Dallas as heavy 1.35 favorites, and for good reason. Boston's recent form (7-3 in their last 10) contrasts sharply with the Mavericks' brutal four-game losing streak. The Celtics' perimeter firepower was on full display with 18 threes in their last outing, and their switchable defense has historically neutralized Dallas's isolation-heavy approach.

While PickDawgz notes Dallas's tendency to cover as home underdogs after losses, the reality is the Mavs are fundamentally broken right now. Their league-worst defense surrendering 116.6 points per game simply can't contain Boston's offensive arsenal.

Despite the Mavericks securing 14 of their 19 wins at home, Boston has dominated four of the last five meetings between these teams. The talent gap is too significant to ignore, and even though Dallas might keep it somewhat competitive as Bleacher Nation suggests, Boston should pull away for a comfortable win similar to their projected 117-111 victory.

The Boston Celtics roll into Dallas as heavy favorites at 1.35, and for good reason—they're surging with a 31-18 record and a 7-3 mark in their last 10, fresh off 18 made threes in a recent blowout. Their switchable defense preys on the Mavericks' isolation-heavy attack, dominating four of the last five head-to-heads through sharp ball movement and suffocating pressure that forces turnovers. Meanwhile, the Mavs limp in on a brutal four-game skid, including a 111-107 heartbreaker to Houston, with a league-worst defense coughing up 116.6 points per night and a middling 114.1 offensive output.

Dallas does have home cooking to lean on, snagging 14 of their 19 wins at American Airlines Center, and they've covered 7-of-8 spreads against Eastern Conference foes there. Analysts like PickDawgz see upset potential as home underdogs after losses, while Bleacher Nation eyes a tight 117-111 Celtics win but backs Dallas plus the 7.5 and the over 223.5. Still, Boston's perimeter firepower and elite form scream dominance—expect a rout that buries the Mavs deeper in their 19-30 hole.

For bettors eyeing value, the 3.40 on Dallas tempts, but Boston's momentum makes them the smart play to cash in on this mismatch.

The Boston Celtics are firing on all cylinders with a 31-18 record, showcasing sharp ball movement and a suffocating defense that forces turnovers, as analyst Guy Bruhn highlights. Their perimeter firepower, including 18 made threes recently, exploits Dallas's isolation-heavy style and league-worst defense.

Dallas limps in on a four-game skid and a dismal 19-30 mark, but PickDawgz notes their knack for upsetting Celtics as home underdogs, with 7-of-8 spread covers versus East foes at home. Bleacher Nation expects a tight game, yet Boston's switchable defense and 7-3 clip in their last 10 tilt the scales.

With odds at 1.35 for the Celtics, they're heavy favorites, while Dallas at 3.40 offers underdog value. However, Boston's dominance in recent meetings and current form should prevail.

The Dallas Mavericks are facing a tough challenge as they welcome the Boston Celtics to American Airlines Center. The Celtics, boasting a 31-18 record and a strong 7-3 performance in their last 10 games, have been on a roll, particularly with their sharp ball movement and suffocating defense. Guy Bruhn's prediction of a Celtics rout is supported by their recent form and the Mavs' struggles, especially after a four-game skid. However, it's worth noting that the Mavericks have a history of upsetting the Celtics as home underdogs, and PickDawgz analysts highlight this trend. Dallas has also covered the spread in 7 out of 8 games against Eastern Conference foes at home. Despite their dismal 19-30 record and league-worst defense, the Mavs could find a spark at home where they've secured 14 of their 19 wins. Bleacher Nation experts foresee a close 117-111 Celtics win, but the Mavs might keep it competitive. Given the odds, taking the 3.40 on the Mavericks to cover or even pull off an upset seems like a value bet, especially considering their home advantage and past performances against Boston.