Betting tips from AI for Iva Jović vs Jasmine Paolini, 23 January 2026.

This is a classic value spot. Bookmakers list Jasmine Paolini as favorite at 1.74 and models back her, but sharp money has aggressively moved into Iva Jović, pushing her price to 2.21. Reverse line movement and VSiN notes of a hot start (Jović’s run from Hobart final to straight-set wins in Melbourne) mean the market is rewarding real momentum.
Paolini owns the rivalry and has been dominant early, yet the smart-money flow plus Jović’s recent confidence make the underdog the profitable play. I’ll back Iva Jović at 2.21 — one dollar here targets upside against a favorite whose edge is already priced in.

This Australian Open clash between Iva Jović and Jasmine Paolini presents a fascinating betting scenario. While Dimers' model gives Paolini a 57% edge and she holds a dominant 2-0 head-to-head record from 2025, including a US Open win, the market tells a different story. Sharp bettors have been piling into Jović at 2.22, triggering significant reverse line movement that saw Paolini's favoritism shrink from 1.56 to 1.73. Jović arrives in Melbourne in blistering form, reaching finals in Hobart, semis in Auckland, and dispatching opponents in straight sets here. This momentum, combined with the sharp money backing her at 2.21, suggests she's primed for a revenge upset. Paolini is also playing well, but the value lies with the surging underdog.

While Paolini enters as the favorite at 1.74, there's compelling value in Jović at 2.21. The sharp money movement from -178 to -137 for Paolini signals professional bettors see something promising in Jović's chances. The Croatian's recent form is exceptional, reaching finals in Hobart and semifinals in Auckland before dismantling both Hon and Volynets in straight sets at Melbourne Park.

Paolini has certainly looked impressive, dropping just four games in her first two matches. However, Jović's momentum and adaptation to the hard courts cannot be ignored. While Paolini holds a 2-0 head-to-head advantage from 2025, Jović's trajectory suggests she's primed for revenge.

The 9-2 start to 2026 for Jović that caught VSiN's attention demonstrates her improved consistency. With the line movement trending in her favor and her confidence at an all-time high, Jović has the weapons to pull off the upset against the Italian.

In the sun-baked arenas of Melbourne Park, Iva Jović faces a daunting task against the poised Jasmine Paolini in this Australian Open third-round clash. Jović, the young Serbian sensation, has stormed into the spotlight with a blistering start to 2026, boasting a 9-2 record and straight-set demolitions of Hon and Volynets here. Her finals run in Hobart and semis in Auckland signal she's peaking on hard courts, fueling sharp money at +121 odds and sparking reverse line movement that nudged Paolini's line from -178 to -136.

Yet Paolini, the Italian veteran, enters as the clear favorite for good reason. She's surrendered just four games in two dominant wins over Frech and Sasnovich, extending her hot form with a 3-1 record this year. More crucially, she owns the head-to-head, sweeping Jović in both 2025 meetings—including a crisp US Open takedown—giving her the psychological edge for revenge.

Dimers' model reinforces this, projecting Paolini with a 57% win probability, bolstered by superior first-set odds and a likely under 22.5 games total. While Jović's underdog fire tempts value hunters, Paolini's consistency and rivalry dominance make her the profitable play at -136. Expect the Italian to advance to the round of 16 in a controlled straight-sets victory.

Jasmine Paolini storms into this match with ruthless efficiency, conceding only four games in her opening Australian Open victories. Her early 2026 form is impeccable at 3-1, and she holds a mental stranglehold after sweeping both 2025 clashes, including a US Open win.

Sharp bettors are circling Iva Jović at 2.21, triggering reverse line movement that saw Paolini's odds shorten from 1.56 to 1.74. Jović's own surge, with straight-set triumphs here and deep runs in Hobart and Auckland, presents a compelling case.

Yet, Paolini's sustained dominance and superior first-set likelihood, per models, make her the more reliable bet to cash at 1.74 and continue her march.

The Australian Open Women's match between Iva Jović and Jasmine Paolini is shaping up to be a thrilling contest. Jasmine Paolini, currently favored at 1.74, has shown remarkable form in the tournament, dropping just four games in her first two matches. Her consistent performance and a 3-1 record this year make her a formidable opponent. However, Iva Jović, with odds of 2.21, has been on a roll, entering the match with a strong momentum after reaching finals in Hobart and semis in Auckland. Her straight-set victories over Hon and Volynets at the Open highlight her current form and confidence. Despite Paolini's dominance in their previous meetings, including a US Open second-round win, the sharp bettors' interest in Jović, causing a reverse line movement, suggests that she might be undervalued. The stage is set for a potential upset, and given the recent trends and Jović's impressive form, she could very well turn the tables on Paolini.