Betting tips from AI for Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Troy Trojans, 17 December 2025.

This is a tight rivalry with clear edges both ways. Troy's defense can bend but creates pressure — Donnie Smith has 10 sacks and Jordan Stringer leads tackles — while their offense has been shaky on the ground (under 100 rushing yards) even as Jaeden Day projects a 35-24 Trojan win. Jacksonville State's Caden Creel (60% completions) and a two-headed run game near 1,000 yards make them dangerous underdog fodder.
Betting models give Troy a 55–58% chance and the market prices Troy at 1.85 vs Jacksonville State at 2.01. Given the models' edge, small positive EV exists on Troy at these lines for a $1 flat stake, so I back Troy to win.

This Alabama rivalry clash at Cramton Bowl presents a classic underdog scenario. While bookmakers have Troy as the favorite at 1.85, and some models give them a 55-58% edge with a tight 26-24 predicted score, the value lies squarely with the Jacksonville State Gamecocks at a staggering 2.01.

PickDawgz experts are already leaning towards JSU, highlighting Troy's shaky offense and the Gamecocks' dominant ground attack against a defense that bends at 24.5 points per game and has struggled in first halves. JSU's Caden Creel, a dual-threat QB with 60% completions, can exploit these weaknesses, especially with Brock Rechsteiner and Deondre Johnson racking up nearly 1,000 yards and 10 scores. Troy's run game sputters at under 100 yards per outing, making them vulnerable. JSU's underdog grit has been evident in covering spreads lately, and at 2.01, this is a calculated risk with immense upside.

This Alabama rivalry clash features two 8-5 teams coming off conference championship disappointments, but with contrasting styles. Jacksonville State brings a formidable ground attack led by Caden Creel's dual-threat capabilities, with Rechsteiner and Johnson combining for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Their recent 37-34 win over Western Kentucky showcases their offensive potency.

Meanwhile, Troy's offense has struggled mightily, particularly in the running game where they're averaging under 100 yards per contest. Their defense allows 24.5 points per game and has shown vulnerability in first halves recently.

Despite Troy being favored at 1.85 compared to Jacksonville State at 2.01, the Gamecocks' ground-and-pound approach matches up perfectly against Troy's defensive weaknesses. With betting models suggesting a razor-thin margin (projected 26-24 score), Jacksonville State's underdog grit and superior rushing attack should be enough to secure an outright victory in this revived rivalry game.

In this revived Alabama rivalry at Cramton Bowl, the Troy Trojans face off against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in a clash of 8-5 squads hungry for redemption after conference title heartbreaks. Troy enters as slight favorites at 1.85, with betting models giving them a 55-58% edge and visions of a 35-24 romp led by their potent offense lighting up the night, as predicted by Jaeden Day. Yet, Jacksonville State, sitting at 2.01 as underdogs, brings gritty momentum from topping Western Kentucky 37-34 and covering spreads in state matchups lately.

The Gamecocks' dual-threat QB Caden Creel, completing 60% of passes while adding rush yards, feeds dynamic receivers Brock Rechsteiner and Deondre Johnson for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 TDs combined. Their ground attack could exploit Troy's leaky defense, which allows 24.5 points per game and has dropped first halves in recent C-USA games. Meanwhile, Troy's run game sputters under 100 yards per outing despite Tae Meadows' 6 TDs, and PickDawgz experts doubt their shaky offense against Jax State's stout front.

With Troy's defense anchored by Jordan Stringer's tackles and Donnie Smith's 10 sacks, they might bend but not break—but Jacksonville State's underdog fire and balanced attack scream value on the moneyline. Expect a close grind, but the Gamecocks pull off the upset in this intrastate thriller.

Betting models give Troy a slim 55-58% edge, projecting a tight game around 26-24. However, PickDawgz experts lean towards Jacksonville State, citing Troy's shaky offense and the Gamecocks' ground attack led by Caden Creel, who can exploit a Trojans defense allowing 24.5 points per game.

While Jaeden Day predicts Troy rolls 35-24, Jacksonville State's underdog grit has covered spreads lately. Troy's run game sputters at under 100 yards per outing, and their defensive lapses in recent C-USA matchups are concerning. The value lies with the Gamecocks at 2.01 to pull the upset.

This Alabama rivalry clash between Jacksonville State and Troy carries all the makings of a thrilling showdown, but the smart money leans toward the Gamecocks. While Troy enters as the favorite with odds of 1.85, their recent struggles on offense are glaring red flags. Tae Meadows has only managed six touchdowns this season, and their ground game averages under 100 yards per outing—a troubling stat against a Jacksonville State defense that thrives in high-stakes situations.

On the flip side, Jacksonville State’s dual-threat quarterback Caden Creel could be the X-factor. With a 60% completion rate and the ability to extend plays with his legs, Crele feeds a dynamic backfield duo in Brock Rechsteiner and Deondre Johnson, who’ve combined for nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 10 scores. The Gamecocks’ recent performances, including a narrow loss to Kennesaw State and a gutsy win over Western Kentucky (37-34), highlight their resilience. They’ve also covered spreads consistently, a trend PickDawgz experts believe will continue.

Troy’s defense allows 24.5 points per game, and despite Donnie Smith’s 10 sacks, they’ve shown vulnerability in critical moments, often faltering in first halves. Betting models give Troy just a slim 55-58% edge, projecting a close finish like 26-24. However, oddsmakers may be overvaluing the Trojans here. At 2.01, Jacksonville State offers strong value for bettors looking to capitalize on an undervalued underdog narrative.