Betting tips from AI for Jeff Creighton vs Diego Bianchini, 22 November 2025.

Jeff Creighton vs. Diego Bianchini at LFA 223 is a classic welterweight clash between a proven minute-winner and a live submission hunter. The market has inched Creighton into slight favorite status at 1.66, with Bianchini the underdog at 2.10, which broadly reflects their tendencies: Creighton’s round-winning consistency versus Bianchini’s high-leverage grappling threats. For a $1 bet, we’re looking for the side that offers both the more reliable path and a positive expectation at the current price.

Creighton’s résumé (11–2–1) and recent win over Miguel Jacob underscore a well-rounded, composed game. He’s not a one-shot finisher (six decisions, four submissions, one KO/TKO), but he excels at controlling pace, managing risk, and banking minutes with smart clinch work, solid entries, and top pressure that neutralizes chaos. He typically makes good choices—passing when safe, striking when stations are favorable, and avoiding low-percentage scrambles. Over three rounds, that style tends to translate to judges’ cards, especially when he can dictate where the fight takes place.

Bianchini (9–1) brings real danger, particularly early, with five career submissions and a knack for jumping on mistakes. He’s slick in transitions, and his finishing instincts are sharp. But the tradeoff for that kill-or-be-killed grappling is occasional positional risk: if he doesn’t snare the neck or isolate a limb, he can be put on his back and made to work from guard, where an opponent like Creighton can smother and chip away. On the feet, Bianchini throws with intent, yet his striking is a touch less layered; extended exchanges tend to favor the cleaner, more measured operator.

Stylistically, this matchup tilts toward Creighton as long as he minds his P’s and Q’s in the first half of Round 1. He owns the more reliable defensive grappling, balances pressure with caution, and has the cardio to keep a steady clip. If the fight settles into clinch-and-mat phases, Creighton’s positional awareness should blunt Bianchini’s setups and keep him ahead on control time and significant, low-risk scoring. The main hazard is a guillotine or back-take in a scramble; avoiding head-in entries and keeping hands connected on level changes mitigate that risk.

Pricing-wise, 1.66 implies about 60% win probability. My number sits in the 62–64% range given Creighton’s minute-winning profile and better round equity. For a $1 stake, the expected return at this price is positive: even a conservative 62% fair (vs. ~60% implied) gives a small but real edge. Practically, his likeliest path is a decision—consistent with his history and this matchup’s dynamics—though a late-round top-control submission remains a live secondary outcome.

Bet: Jeff Creighton moneyline at 1.66 for $1. It’s a modest but justified value position against a dangerous, lower-volume, submission-dependent underdog at 2.10. The pick is Creighton to manage risk, win minutes, and edge a competitive three-rounder.

This main card welterweight clash at LFA 223 presents a classic MMA puzzle: the experienced veteran versus the rising specialist. Jeff Creighton enters as the favorite with odds of 1.66, and for good reason. With a professional record of 11-2-1, Creighton has navigated the regional scene with poise and a well-rounded skill set. The most telling statistic is his method of victory; six of his eleven wins have come by decision. This demonstrates not only excellent cardio and durability but also a high fight IQ, allowing him to control the pace and geography of a fight to consistently sway the judges.

While he's not a devastating knockout artist, Creighton's ability to grind out wins against tough opponents is his bread and butter. He also possesses a respectable ground game, with four submission victories to his name. This will be absolutely crucial in this matchup, as he faces a legitimate submission ace in Diego Bianchini. Creighton doesn't need to dominate the grappling exchanges, but he must prove he can survive them. His experience in longer fights gives him a significant advantage if this bout extends into the later rounds, where Bianchini's explosive style may fade.

Diego Bianchini, the underdog at 2.10, is anything but a pushover. His 9-1 record is impressive, and his path to victory is crystal clear. With five of his nine wins coming via submission, Bianchini is a constant threat to end the fight the moment it hits the canvas. He is a specialist in a division often filled with generalists, making him a dangerous matchup for anyone who isn't prepared for his brand of grappling. He is younger in his career and likely still improving rapidly, carrying the momentum of a fighter on the rise.

However, that specialization can also be a limitation. If Creighton can successfully defend takedowns, keep the fight standing, and use his reach and footwork to dictate the range, Bianchini may struggle to implement his primary game plan. Creighton has more ways to win this fight. He can win by points, find a submission of his own if Bianchini makes a mistake, or even score a late TKO against a tired opponent. While Bianchini offers tempting value as an underdog, the smart money lies with Creighton's proven durability and tactical acumen to neutralize the threat and secure a hard-fought decision victory.

This LFA 223 welterweight clash presents an intriguing stylistic matchup between two well-rounded fighters with contrasting paths to victory. Jeff Creighton enters as the favorite at 1.66, and the odds reflect his recent momentum and overall experience edge.

Creighton's 11-2-1 record showcases remarkable versatility, with six decision victories demonstrating his ability to control fights over three rounds. His four submission wins and one knockout prove he can finish fights when opportunities arise. Coming off a victory over Miguel Jacob at LFA 178, Creighton appears to be hitting his stride at the perfect time. His decision-heavy approach suggests excellent cardio and fight IQ, crucial factors in a three-round bout.

Bianchini presents a fascinating puzzle with his 9-1 record heavily skewed toward submissions - five of his nine wins coming via tap-out. This grappling prowess makes him extremely dangerous, especially early in fights when his energy levels are highest. However, his limited experience compared to Creighton could prove costly against a seasoned veteran who knows how to navigate dangerous positions.

The Sports Gambling Podcast's recognition of this as their regional pick of the week validates the competitive nature of this matchup. Both fighters made weight comfortably at their previous LFA 178 appearances, indicating no issues with the cut or physical preparation.

Creighton's edge lies in his well-rounded skill set and proven ability to win close fights. While Bianchini's submission threat cannot be ignored, Creighton's experience advantage and superior striking should allow him to control distance and dictate the pace. The 1.66 line offers reasonable value on a fighter who has consistently found ways to win throughout his career.

Expect Creighton to use his jab, maintain distance, and avoid prolonged ground exchanges where Bianchini thrives. His path to victory involves mixing striking with takedown defense, gradually wearing down the submission specialist over three rounds.

The upcoming welterweight clash between Jeff Creighton and Diego Bianchini at LFA 223 on November 22, 2025, is shaping up to be a thrilling encounter that MMA fans won't want to miss. With the fight kicking off at 4:00 AM UTC, it's a main card bout that's already buzzing in the community, thanks in part to the Sports Gambling Podcast naming it their regional pick of the week. Creighton enters as the slight favorite with odds of 1.66, while Bianchini sits at 2.10, offering some tempting value for underdog bettors.

Diving into the fighters' profiles, Jeff Creighton boasts an impressive 11-2-1 record, showcasing his well-rounded skills. His recent victory over Miguel Jacob at LFA 178 highlights his ability to grind out wins, with six decisions, four submissions, and one KO/TKO in his arsenal. Weighing in at 170.4 lbs for that bout, Creighton has demonstrated consistency at welterweight, and with no reported injuries, he's likely entering this fight in peak condition. His experience edge—14 fights compared to Bianchini's 10—could be crucial in a three-round war where stamina and strategy often decide the outcome.

On the flip side, Diego Bianchini is no slouch with a 9-1-0 record, making him a rising star in the division. His five submission victories underscore his reputation as a dangerous grappler, which could pose significant problems for Creighton if the fight hits the mat. Bianchini's most recent weigh-in at 169.8 lbs shows he's comfortably making weight, and his lone KO/TKO win adds a striking threat to his game. The Sports Gambling Podcast notes his rising reputation, suggesting he's not just an underdog but a legitimate contender who could pull off an upset with his jiu-jitsu prowess.

Analyzing the matchup, both fighters share similar physical attributes like reach and height, leveling the playing field in stand-up exchanges. However, Creighton's overall experience and recent form give him a slight nod. He's coming off a win and has faced tougher competition, which might help him navigate Bianchini's submission attempts. That said, Bianchini's grappling could be the X-factor; if he secures a takedown early, he might force a tap-out and cash in those 2.10 odds for bettors.

From a betting perspective, I'm leaning towards Creighton as the predicted winner. The odds reflect his favoritism, but they're not overwhelmingly lopsided, indicating a competitive fight. For those looking to maximize profits with a $1 bet, siding with Creighton at 1.66 offers a safer path to returns, potentially netting about $0.66 profit per dollar wagered. If you're feeling bold, a small stake on Bianchini could yield higher rewards, but based on records and form, Creighton's versatility should carry him to victory, likely by decision after controlling the pace.

Ultimately, this bout exemplifies why regional MMA like LFA is a goldmine for bettors—underrated talent and close odds mean informed picks can lead to consistent profits. Keep an eye on any last-minute news, but as it stands, Creighton's edge makes him the smart choice for building that bankroll.

The welterweight showdown between Jeff Creighton and Diego Bianchini at LFA 223 is a highly anticipated matchup that pits experience against specialization. Creighton, with an 11-2-1 record, brings a well-rounded skill set to the cage, having secured wins through decisions, submissions, and a KO/TKO. His recent victory at LFA 178, where he weighed in at 170.4 lbs with no injury concerns, highlights his current form and durability. In contrast, Bianchini boasts a formidable 9-1-0 record, with over half his wins coming by submission, making him a constant threat on the ground. However, his fewer fights and lone loss suggest he may lack the same level of experience against diverse opponents as Creighton.

Odds from bookmakers favor Creighton at 1.66, implying a win probability of around 60.3%, while Bianchini sits at 2.10 with an implied probability of approximately 47.6%. This pricing reflects Creighton's consistency and ability to adapt, as seen in his mix of victory methods. The Sports Gambling Podcast's endorsement of Creighton as their regional pick of the week adds weight to his chances, indicating that insiders see value in his recent performances. Although Bianchini's grappling prowess could lead to an upset, Creighton's history of avoiding submissions and controlling fights through decisions gives him a tactical edge.

From a betting perspective, Creighton's odds of 1.66 offer solid value if his true win probability exceeds 60%, which seems likely given his experience and lack of recent setbacks. Bianchini's aggressive submission style is dangerous, but Creighton's versatility and conditioning should allow him to dictate the pace over three rounds. In a close contest, Creighton's ability to weather early storms and capitalize on opportunities makes him the smarter choice for profitability. Betting on him aligns with the data and expert insights, positioning this as a wager with positive expected value.

Jeff Creighton enters this welterweight bout against Diego Bianchini with a slight edge according to the sportsbooks, reflected in his odds of 1.66. This suggests that bettors need to wager $152 to win $100 on Creighton, underscoring his role as the favorite. Meanwhile, Bianchini is listed at 2.10, offering a $110 profit on a $100 bet if he pulls off the upset. These odds indicate a relatively close matchup, but one where Creighton’s recent form and consistent performances have earned him a modest advantage.
Creighton’s record of 11-2-1 speaks volumes about his reliability in the cage. With six wins by decision, four by submission, and one by KO/TKO, he demonstrates versatility in how he finishes fights. His most recent victory over Miguel Jacob showcased his ability to adapt to different styles and maintain composure under pressure. At LFA 178, Creighton weighed in at 170.4 lbs, suggesting he is comfortable fighting near the welterweight limit. His experience in high-stakes matchups and steady improvement make him a formidable opponent for anyone in the division.
On the other side, Diego Bianchini brings a dangerous skill set into the octagon, boasting a 9-1-0 record with five submissions, two decisions, and one KO/TKO. Bianchini’s reputation as a submission threat should not be underestimated, especially given his ability to finish fights quickly when he secures advantageous positions. However, his limited number of fights compared to Creighton might hint at less overall cage time and experience managing the nuances of longer bouts. Bianchini weighed in at 169.8 lbs for his last fight, indicating both fighters are well-conditioned and prepared for the welterweight challenge."The Sports Gambling Podcast’s recognition of this matchup as their regional pick of the week highlights its significance within the MMA community. Their emphasis on Creighton’s strong recent form aligns with the bookmakers’ assessment. While Bianchini’s grappling skills are noted as a potential game-changer, Creighton’s balanced attack and higher volume of professional fights give him an edge in terms of adaptability. In MMA, the ability to adjust mid-fight often separates winners from losers, and Creighton’s track record suggests he excels in this area."Another factor favoring Creighton is his mental fortitude. Fighters who consistently perform well in main card bouts demonstrate a level of psychological resilience that can be decisive in close matches. Creighton has shown he can handle the pressure of being the favorite, while Bianchini’s lack of exposure to similarly high-profile contests raises questions about how he will respond if the fight goes beyond the early rounds. Additionally, Creighton’s diverse finishing methods suggest he can exploit weaknesses regardless of whether the fight stays standing or hits the mat.