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Betting tips from AI for Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys, 23 January 2026.
AI Consensus
1.05
Away win
4 of 6 AI models pick Madison Keys to win at
1.05
ChatGPT tip
Karolina Pliskova win
13.99
ChatGPT prediction for Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys, 23 January 2026.
I back Karolina Pliskova as a value pick. The market lists Pliskova at 5.96 while Madison Keys is a massive favorite at 1.16, so a $1 upset pays handsomely.
The public models heavily favor Keys (Dimers 76%, Pro Football Network 92%), but Forebet gives Pliskova 67% and her 1-0 H2H plus razor-sharp break-point work (6/7 converted) stands out. Keys has been excellent on first serve but was broken three times; that vulnerability plus Pliskova’s tactical awareness after a measured return to form creates a realistic upset path.
Betting edge: the book appears to overprice Keys’ certainty. Given the contrasting models and Pliskova’s break-point efficiency, the +496 quote represents value — take Pliskova for a $1 value bet.
The public models heavily favor Keys (Dimers 76%, Pro Football Network 92%), but Forebet gives Pliskova 67% and her 1-0 H2H plus razor-sharp break-point work (6/7 converted) stands out. Keys has been excellent on first serve but was broken three times; that vulnerability plus Pliskova’s tactical awareness after a measured return to form creates a realistic upset path.
Betting edge: the book appears to overprice Keys’ certainty. Given the contrasting models and Pliskova’s break-point efficiency, the +496 quote represents value — take Pliskova for a $1 value bet.
Gemini tip
Karolina Pliskova win
13.99
Gemini prediction for Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys, 23 January 2026.
Madison Keys enters this Australian Open clash as the heavy favorite, with bookmakers setting her odds at 1.16, reflecting widespread expert opinion. Dimers gives her a 76% win probability, and Pro Football Network's simulator projects an overwhelming 92% chance. However, for a profitable bet, we must look beyond the obvious favorite.
Karolina Pliskova, despite being the significant underdog at 5.96, presents a compelling value proposition. While some analysts have noted her vulnerabilities after an extended absence, Forebet's model bucks the trend, predicting Pliskova to win with a 67% probability based on her recent form. This stark contrast to the market odds suggests a potential mispricing.
Pliskova's strong tactical awareness is evident in her impressive 6/7 break point conversion rate across her first two matches, even with a lower first-serve percentage than Keys. She also holds a 1-0 head-to-head advantage, albeit from 2020. Given the immense value offered at 5.96 and the contrarian expert opinion, betting on Pliskova provides the highest potential return.
Karolina Pliskova, despite being the significant underdog at 5.96, presents a compelling value proposition. While some analysts have noted her vulnerabilities after an extended absence, Forebet's model bucks the trend, predicting Pliskova to win with a 67% probability based on her recent form. This stark contrast to the market odds suggests a potential mispricing.
Pliskova's strong tactical awareness is evident in her impressive 6/7 break point conversion rate across her first two matches, even with a lower first-serve percentage than Keys. She also holds a 1-0 head-to-head advantage, albeit from 2020. Given the immense value offered at 5.96 and the contrarian expert opinion, betting on Pliskova provides the highest potential return.
Claude tip
Madison Keys win
1.05
Claude prediction for Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys, 23 January 2026.
Despite Forebet's contrarian 67% win probability for Pliskova, the overwhelming evidence points to Madison Keys continuing her title defense. Keys enters with superior form as the tournament favorite, with Dimers' model giving her a commanding 76% win probability and Pro Football Network projecting an even more decisive 92% chance of victory in straight sets. While Pliskova holds a 1-0 head-to-head advantage from their 2020 Brisbane meeting, her recent Grand Slam performances have been lackluster, failing to reach the fourth round since 2023. Keys' serving statistics are particularly impressive, winning 71% of first-serve points with a 60% break point conversion rate. The 1.16 odds for Keys reflect her substantial advantage, making Pliskova's 5.96 odds tempting but ultimately unlikely to pay off given the defending champion's current level.
Grok tip
Madison Keys win
1.05
Grok prediction for Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys, 23 January 2026.
In this Australian Open women's showdown, Madison Keys enters as the defending champion and tournament favorite, facing a resurgent Karolina Pliskova who's chasing her first fourth-round appearance in a Grand Slam since 2023. The odds heavily favor Keys at 1.16, reflecting her dominant path so far, while Pliskova sits as a longshot at 5.96.
Keys has been a serving machine, clinching 71% of first-serve points and converting 60% of break opportunities across her opening matches, despite a few breaks conceded. Her 76% win probability from Dimers' model and a staggering 92% straight-sets projection from Pro Football Network's simulator underscore her edge on these hard courts. Pliskova, with a tactical 86% break-point conversion rate (six of seven), holds a 1-0 head-to-head edge from their 2020 Brisbane clash, but her vulnerabilities post-hiatus make her a risky underdog.
Betting $1 on Keys at these odds offers solid value for a profitable return, capitalizing on her form and title defense momentum. Expect Keys to overpower Pliskova in a competitive but ultimately one-sided affair.
Keys has been a serving machine, clinching 71% of first-serve points and converting 60% of break opportunities across her opening matches, despite a few breaks conceded. Her 76% win probability from Dimers' model and a staggering 92% straight-sets projection from Pro Football Network's simulator underscore her edge on these hard courts. Pliskova, with a tactical 86% break-point conversion rate (six of seven), holds a 1-0 head-to-head edge from their 2020 Brisbane clash, but her vulnerabilities post-hiatus make her a risky underdog.
Betting $1 on Keys at these odds offers solid value for a profitable return, capitalizing on her form and title defense momentum. Expect Keys to overpower Pliskova in a competitive but ultimately one-sided affair.
DeepSeek tip
Madison Keys win
1.05
DeepSeek prediction for Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys, 23 January 2026.
Karolina Pliskova clashes with defending champion Madison Keys in a high-stakes Australian Open third-round match, with Keys a heavy favorite at 1.16 and Pliskova a tempting underdog at 5.96.
Dimers' predictive model gives Keys a 76% win probability, and Pro Football Network projects a staggering 92% chance for her to win in straight sets, reflecting her dominant serving and title defense momentum. While Forebet's analysis counters with a 67% probability for Pliskova based on recent form, and she holds a 1-0 head-to-head edge from 2020, Keys' superior consistency and break point conversion make her the safer bet.
Given the odds and Keys' current prowess, backing the favorite offers the most reliable path to profitability in this encounter.
Dimers' predictive model gives Keys a 76% win probability, and Pro Football Network projects a staggering 92% chance for her to win in straight sets, reflecting her dominant serving and title defense momentum. While Forebet's analysis counters with a 67% probability for Pliskova based on recent form, and she holds a 1-0 head-to-head edge from 2020, Keys' superior consistency and break point conversion make her the safer bet.
Given the odds and Keys' current prowess, backing the favorite offers the most reliable path to profitability in this encounter.
Qwen tip
Madison Keys win
1.05
Qwen prediction for Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys, 23 January 2026.
In the upcoming Australian Open Women's match, defending champion Madison Keys is heavily favored to advance. Dimers' predictive model and Pro Football Network's simulator both give Keys a significant edge, with win probabilities of 76% and 92%, respectively. Keys has shown impressive serving statistics, winning 71% of her first-serve points and converting break points at a 60% rate. Despite Pliskova's tactical sharpness and a 1-0 head-to-head advantage from 2020, her recent form and vulnerabilities after an extended absence make her the underdog. The odds reflect this, with Keys at 1.16 and Pliskova at 5.96. Given Keys' current form and her strong performance in the tournament so far, she is the more likelyable contender to win this match.
Match News
# Australian Open Women's Singles: Pliskova vs. Keys
## Predictions & Expert Analysis
• Dimers' predictive model gives Keys a commanding 76% win probability, with the defending champion favored to claim the first set at 72%.[1]
• Pro Football Network's simulator projects an overwhelming 92% victory chance for Keys in straight sets, reflecting her status as the tournament favorite.[3]
• Forebet's analysis counters the consensus, predicting Pliskova to win with 67% probability based on recent form.[6]
• LastWordOnTennis analysts were split on Pliskova's second-round clash with Janice Tjen, with two of three experts backing Tjen to end the Czech player's run, citing Pliskova's vulnerabilities after her extended absence from tour.[2]
## Match Context
Keys is defending her 2026 Australian Open title and seeking to advance to the fourth round, while Pliskova aims to reach the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the first time since 2023.[3] Pliskova holds a 1-0 head-to-head advantage over Keys from their 2020 Brisbane meeting.[3]
Keys has demonstrated strong serving statistics through two matches, winning 71% of first-serve points with a 60% break point conversion rate, though she's been broken three times.[3] Pliskova has converted six of seven break points across her two matches, showcasing sharp tactical awareness despite winning a lower percentage of first-serve points at 65%.[3]
## Predictions & Expert Analysis
• Dimers' predictive model gives Keys a commanding 76% win probability, with the defending champion favored to claim the first set at 72%.[1]
• Pro Football Network's simulator projects an overwhelming 92% victory chance for Keys in straight sets, reflecting her status as the tournament favorite.[3]
• Forebet's analysis counters the consensus, predicting Pliskova to win with 67% probability based on recent form.[6]
• LastWordOnTennis analysts were split on Pliskova's second-round clash with Janice Tjen, with two of three experts backing Tjen to end the Czech player's run, citing Pliskova's vulnerabilities after her extended absence from tour.[2]
## Match Context
Keys is defending her 2026 Australian Open title and seeking to advance to the fourth round, while Pliskova aims to reach the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the first time since 2023.[3] Pliskova holds a 1-0 head-to-head advantage over Keys from their 2020 Brisbane meeting.[3]
Keys has demonstrated strong serving statistics through two matches, winning 71% of first-serve points with a 60% break point conversion rate, though she's been broken three times.[3] Pliskova has converted six of seven break points across her two matches, showcasing sharp tactical awareness despite winning a lower percentage of first-serve points at 65%.[3]
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