Betting tips from AI for Melissa Croden vs Luana Santos, 14 December 2025.

Luana Santos is the safer, more profitable $1 play here. Her elite grappling — 83% takedown accuracy and a top-level BJJ game from 011 MMA — creates a matchup problem for Melissa Croden, who can beat her only by keeping it standing. Santos’ recent submission of Tainara Lisboa, a 4-1 UFC slate and multiple finishes make her the realistic favorite to impose a ground fight and grind out a finish or decision. The market already leans that way with Santos listed at 1.74, while Croden’s power and momentum show up at 2.18.

Croden’s Muay Thai and cardio make this intriguing and worth a small hedge if you love upside, but for pure EV on a $1 wager I back Santos to control the range, neutralize striking exchanges with takedowns and secure a win. Take Luana Santos at 1.74 for the best combination of probability and value.

This bantamweight clash between Melissa Croden and Luana Santos presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic. Luana Santos, favored at 1.74, comes into this fight with significant momentum and a highly touted ground game. ClutchPoints analysts highlight her elite grappling, boasting an impressive 83% takedown accuracy and a lethal BJJ game that could overwhelm Croden on the mat.

Santos's transition to bantamweight has been successful, evidenced by her 4-1 UFC record with five finishes, including a recent submission victory. While Melissa Croden, priced at 2.18, brings sharp Muay Thai striking and power punches, offering an upset threat if she can keep the fight standing, the market's lean towards Santos at 56¢ to Croden's 47¢ on Robinhood reflects the perceived advantage of the Brazilian's ground dominance. Experts warn Croden's early takedown defense will be crucial, but Santos's ability to get the fight to the ground is too significant to ignore, making her the safer bet.

This bantamweight clash features a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Luana Santos brings elite grappling credentials with her impressive 83% takedown accuracy and dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu game that's been finishing opponents consistently. Her recent submission victory over Tainara Lisboa demonstrates her finishing ability, and her move to bantamweight has clearly rejuvenated her career.

Melissa Croden shouldn't be overlooked at 2.18 odds, however. Her Muay Thai background and power striking present a legitimate path to victory if she can implement her early takedown defense and keep this fight standing. Her two-fight win streak shows she's hitting her stride in the UFC.

Ultimately, Santos' grappling advantage appears too significant to ignore. The betting markets reflect this with Santos priced at 1.74, suggesting about a 57% win probability. I expect Santos to weather early striking exchanges before securing takedowns and controlling Croden on the mat for either a submission win or dominant decision.

In this UFC Vegas 112 bantamweight prelim, Luana Santos enters as the favorite at 1.74, and for good reason. The Brazilian's elite grappling from the 011 MMA Team, with 83% takedown accuracy and a lethal BJJ arsenal, positions her to smother Melissa Croden on the mat. Santos boasts a slick 4-1 UFC record, including five finishes, her latest a round-two submission of Tainara Lisboa in May after moving up from flyweight.

Croden, riding a two-fight win streak with sharp Muay Thai striking, could pose an upset threat at 2.18 if she keeps it standing. Her power punches and knee counters might exploit Santos' striking vulnerabilities, potentially stealing a late TKO or decision with her volume and cardio.

However, experts at ClutchPoints predict Santos to dominate, and betting markets on Robinhood echo that with crowd wisdom at 56¢ for her versus 47¢ for Croden. While Croden's takedown defense is solid early, Santos' ground edge should overwhelm in a grappling-heavy affair. I'll back Santos to win, offering value on the favorite in this striker vs. grappler clash.

Luana Santos enters as the rightful favorite, with ClutchPoints analysts highlighting her elite grappling and 83% takedown accuracy. Her BJJ pedigree from the 011 MMA Team gives her a clear path to victory if she can ground Croden, as seen in her recent submission win over Tainara Lisboa. Melissa Croden's sharp Muay Thai and power punches offer an upset threat if she keeps it standing, but Santos' proven finishing ability and favorable odds at 1.74 make her the smarter pick.

Luana Santos enters this bantamweight bout as the betting favorite with odds of 1.74, and for good reason. Her grappling pedigree, highlighted by an 83% takedown accuracy and a lethal Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, could be the decisive factor against Melissa Croden. ClutchPoints analysts have already tipped Santos to dominate on the mat, where her ability to smother opponents might neutralize Croden’s striking strengths.

However, Melissa Croden is not without her own threats. Riding a two-fight win streak into UFC Vegas 112, Croden’s Muay Thai striking and power punches present a real danger if she can keep the fight standing. Experts have pointed out that her early takedown defense and knee counters could disrupt Santos’ rhythm, potentially forcing the Brazilian into a dangerous striking war. With odds of 2.18, Croden offers solid value as an underdog, particularly given her cardio and volume-based approach, which could sway judges in a late decision.

Despite Croden’s potential to cause problems on the feet, Santos’ recent performance—a submission win over Tainara Lisboa—demonstrates her finishing ability. Her 4-1 UFC record includes five finishes, underscoring her knack for ending fights decisively. The crowd wisdom reflected in Robinhood’s betting markets also leans slightly toward Santos at 56¢ compared to Croden’s 47¢, reaffirming her edge.

Given the dynamics at play, Santos’ grappling advantage should prove too much for Croden to handle. If she executes her game plan effectively, Santos is likely to control the pace and secure a victory, whether by decision or submission.