Betting tips from AI for Melquizael Costa vs Morgan Charriere, 14 December 2025.

Telecom Asia's read and Costa's form push me toward Melquizael Costa. The market makes him the favorite at 1.74, with Morgan Charriere listed at 2.18.

Costa's four-fight streak, proven submission game and ability to grind out rounds give him the stylistic edge against Charriere's boom-or-bust entries. Charriere brings highlight-kick power and early explosiveness, but his win-loss swings and Costa's matchup adaptability suggest the champ can smother those bursts, take top control and turn this into a decision win.

Pick: Costa to grind a close decision.

This featherweight clash pits Melquizael Costa, the 1.74 favorite, against the dangerous Morgan Charriere at 2.18. Charriere is known for his explosive entries and knockout power, as evidenced by his flashy UFC debut head-kick KO and Fight of the Night nods. His 83% takedown defense could pose problems for grapplers.

However, Costa rides an impressive four-fight UFC win streak, demonstrating a consistent, grinding style that includes both submissions and decisions. Telecom Asia analysts back Costa to grind out a decision, praising his submission edge and adaptability. While Charriere has shown brilliance, his win-loss alternations contrast sharply with Costa's steady progression and unbeaten run over two years. Costa's ability to weather early storms and impose his will over time makes him the safer bet here.

Costa's four-fight win streak in the UFC speaks volumes about his consistency and evolution as a fighter. While Charriere has shown flashes of brilliance with his head-kick KO in his debut and Fight of the Night performances, his alternating win-loss pattern raises concerns about his consistency.

Costa at 1.74 offers solid value considering his well-rounded skillset. His submission prowess and ability to adapt against various stylists like Julian Erosa demonstrates his technical superiority. Though Charriere possesses knockout power and impressive 83% takedown defense, Costa's grinding style should wear him down over three rounds.

The Frenchman tends to start strong but fades, while Costa has proven he can maintain pressure throughout fights. With Costa aiming for a rare four-victory year, his momentum and submission edge should be enough to neutralize Charriere's explosive entries, leading to either a late submission or decision win.

In this featherweight clash at the UFC Apex, Melquizael Costa enters as the favorite at 1.74, riding a scorching four-fight win streak that includes gritty submissions and decisions against seasoned foes like Andre Fili and Julian Erosa. His adaptability and submission prowess make him a nightmare for flashy strikers, and analysts from Telecom Asia see him grinding out a decision victory by neutralizing takedown attempts.

Morgan Charriere, the +118 underdog, brings explosive knockout power, highlighted by his stunning head-kick KO in his UFC debut that earned Fight of the Night honors. Yet, his alternating win-loss pattern raises doubts about his consistency, especially against Costa's unbeaten run over two years. While Charriere's 83% takedown defense and French flair could lead to early fireworks, Costa's steady pressure should wear him down in a tactical battle.

Betting $1 on Costa offers solid value, leveraging his edge in grappling to secure a profitable payout in what promises to be a thrilling main card bout.

Melquizael Costa's four-fight win streak and submission prowess give him a tactical edge, while Morgan Charriere's explosive power and 1.83% takedown defense pose a real threat early.

However, Costa's adaptability and grinding style, as highlighted by Action Network picking him as an underdog at 3.40, suggests he can weather the storm. Charriere's alternating win-loss pattern contrasts with Costa's consistency.

At current odds of 1.74, Costa represents the more reliable path to victory, likely controlling the fight and earning a decision.

Melquizael Costa enters this featherweight bout as the favorite with odds of 1.74, and for good reason. His four-fight win streak in the UFC, including gritty performances against tough opponents like Andre Fili, showcases his ability to adapt and dominate in high-pressure scenarios. Telecom Asia analysts have pointed out his submission edge and steady grind, which could be pivotal against Morgan Charriere's explosive but inconsistent style.

Charriere, on the other hand, brings knockout power and an 83% takedown defense, making him a dangerous opponent early in fights. However, his alternation between wins and losses suggests he struggles with consistency—a glaring issue against a fighter like Costa who thrives on sustained pressure. While Action Network highlights Charriere’s flair and Fight of the Night potential, these attributes may not be enough to overcome Costa’s calculated approach.

The odds reflect this dynamic, with Charriere sitting at 2.18. Though tempting, betting on him would require banking on a flash knockout or early fireworks—something Costa’s recent form suggests is unlikely. The draw at 46.00 is simply too far-fetched given both fighters' aggressive tendencies.

Costa’s unbeaten run over two years, combined with his technical prowess and mental toughness, positions him as the clear choice to grind out a decision or secure a late stoppage.