Betting tips from AI for New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning, 13 December 2025.

Tampa Bay is the sensible play here. Their goaltending edge (projected save% gap 90.7% vs 87.6%) and a 3.1 G/GP attack underpin a clear team-quality advantage, and the market paints them a 58% favorite — the book is offering 1.81 which still contains value given their form and road record (9-6).

The Islanders (home underdog at 2.75) have the narrative edge — recent UBS Arena over trends and two wins over Tampa this season — but those results mask Tampa’s superior underlying numbers and goalie rebound potential after backup struggles. A draw at 4.20 is lower-probability.

Betting pick: back Tampa Bay on the moneyline at 1.81.

This NHL clash presents an intriguing betting opportunity. While the Tampa Bay Lightning enter as 2.23 favorites with a solid 17-11-2 record and potent 3.1 goals per game offense, their recent form is a concern. They've stumbled in three of their last five, including two shutouts, one of which was a tight 2-0 loss against these very Islanders. Crucially, the Islanders have already taken both prior meetings this season, despite the Lightning's strong 9-6 road record.

The New York Islanders, priced at 2.75, are showing signs of life at UBS Arena, hitting the over in 75% of home games recently, fueling hopes for a high-scoring revenge spot. Despite a lower forecast save percentage compared to Tampa Bay's superior 90.7% edge, the 'revenge spot' narrative coupled with their prior head-to-head success against Tampa Bay and the Lightning's recent struggles, especially with backup Jonas Johansson in net, makes the Islanders an attractive underdog play. Their home crowd could propel them to another upset.

The Lightning present compelling value at 2.23 despite dropping both previous matchups to the Islanders this season. Tampa Bay's road form has been exceptional at 9-6 with a 60% win rate away from home, significantly outpacing the Islanders' mediocre home performance (just 50% wins at UBS Arena).

While New York has been heating up at home with 75% of games going over totals recently, Tampa Bay's superior goaltending tells the real story here. The Lightning's 90.7% save percentage vastly outperforms the Islanders' 87.6%, which should prove decisive in this matchup.

Though Tampa has stumbled in three of their last five with backup Johansson in net, they'll likely start their primary goaltender for this important divisional clash. With Tampa's potent 3.1 goals per game offense and stronger overall record (17-11-2), they should overcome their recent struggles against the Islanders and secure a road victory.

The NHL clash between the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning on December 13, 2025, promises fireworks at UBS Arena, where the Isles are looking to extend their home resurgence against a Lightning squad hungry for redemption. Tampa enters as 2.23 favorites, boasting a 17-11-2 record and a lethal 3.1 goals-per-game offense, backed by goalies flashing a 90.7% save percentage that dwarfs the Islanders' projected 87.6%. Their road form is sharp at 9-6 with 60% wins, but stumbles in three of the last five outings with backup Jonas Johansson in net—including that frustrating 2-0 shutout loss to New York—pile pressure on starter Andrei Vasilevskiy for a bounce-back.

Meanwhile, the Islanders, listed at 2.75, hold a gritty 49.1% win probability and are heating up at home, hitting 75% over totals in recent games. They've owned Tampa this season, snagging both prior meetings, and their 50% home success rate could swell with rival intensity fueling a high-scoring affair. The 4.20 draw odds tempt, but New York's defensive edge and momentum tilt this toward an Isles upset, offering sharp value for bettors eyeing underdog payouts.

Betting $1 here on the Islanders could yield solid returns if they capitalize on Tampa's recent woes and home-ice fire.

Tampa Bay Lightning have the statistical edge entering this game, boasting a 58% win probability and strong 17-11-2 record backed by a potent offense averaging 3.1 goals per game. Their goalies' impressive 1.91% save percentage provides a key advantage over the Islanders' struggling 1.88% forecast.

Despite the Isles' recent home surge and prior 2-0 victory, Tampa's solid 9-6 road form and bounce-back urgency after recent losses with backup Jonas Johansson suggest they'll exploit New York's shaky 50% home success rate. The odds at 2.23 for the Lightning offer solid value given their superior talent and motivation.

The matchup between the New York Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning on December 13, 2025, promises to be a thrilling contest with plenty of narrative threads. While the Lightning enter as favorites with their 2.23 odds, bolstered by a strong road record (9-6) and an offense averaging 3.1 goals per game, the Islanders' recent home form cannot be ignored. They’ve been particularly potent at UBS Arena, with 75% of their recent home games exceeding totals—a sign they’re heating up offensively.

Tampa Bay’s goaltending has been stellar this season, led by a 90.7% save percentage that edges out the Islanders’ 87.6%. However, cracks have shown in their armor recently, especially when backup Jonas Johansson was in net. The Lightning dropped three of their last five under his watch, including a shutout loss against these same Islanders earlier in the year. With both teams holding grudges from prior clashes—New York winning both meetings this season—the revenge factor could weigh heavily on Tampa’s mindset.

The Islanders’ odds at 2.75 suggest value for bettors willing to back the underdog, particularly given their improved playstyle and higher shot volume tendencies. Meanwhile, the draw option sits temptingly at 4.20, though NHL regulation draws are rare enough to make this a riskier proposition. Considering all angles, the Islanders' momentum at home combined with Tampa’s inconsistent recent performances makes them a compelling pick despite being slight underdogs.