Betting tips from AI for Ryan Hewitt vs Matthew Friel, 22 November 2025.

This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup on the Cage Warriors 198 prelims, with Ryan Hewitt bringing the crowd and aggression while Matthew Friel brings control and submission threat. Hewitt’s North West roots should guarantee a loud Manchester push and, as Brad Pickett noted, his forward pressure and punch-kick combinations can snowball once he finds rhythm. But the records (Hewitt 2-3, Friel 1-2) and recent form suggest a volatile, lower-sample fight where a few early sequences may decide everything.

Stylistically, Hewitt’s best minutes come at mid-range: he throws in combinations, targets the body, and can punctuate exchanges with leg kicks. His knockout power is real for flyweight, and he’s durable enough to push a steady pace for three rounds. The concern is defensive grappling. Even when he stuffs initial shots, he can be held on the fence or mat-returned later in the round. That’s where Friel, whom Paddy Holohan called an underrated grappler, thrives. Friel works well chaining singles to body locks, and once he gets top, he’s patient—settling half guard, scoring with short strikes, and opening pathways to the back. He doesn’t need to dominate damage to win minutes; he needs to win positions.

From a betting lens, Hewitt at 1.50 implies roughly two-thirds win equity. That’s plausible on narrative—home crowd, cleaner hands, and some pundit backing—but it prices in a level of risk control that Hewitt hasn’t consistently shown. Friel at 2.43 implies low-40s probability, and given his clearest path (early takedowns, fence rides, and top control), I rate his true chances closer to the mid-40s. In a three-round flyweight fight—often decided by small edges in control and optics—that gap creates positive expected value on the underdog.

Key levers: if Friel can connect quickly on entries and make Hewitt carry his weight on the cage, round one becomes slippery for the favorite and may set a template for 29-28 Friel. His submission upside is real, but even without a finish, positional control and mat returns can steal swing rounds. Conversely, if Hewitt gets clean separation, his volume and power moments will sway judges—especially with the local crowd amplifying strikes.

Bottom line: Hewitt might be the “rightful” favorite on skill optics, but the number leans too far. I’m taking the value side and betting $1 on Matthew Friel to edge a control-heavy decision or find a submission if scrambles open up. Expect some sweaty moments, but the price makes the risk worth it.

This Cage Warriors 198 preliminary bout presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic, a puzzle that often provides significant betting value. Ryan Hewitt enters as the bookmaker's favorite with odds around 1.50, a price largely based on his aggressive striking style, hometown advantage in Manchester, and the endorsement of analyst Brad Pickett, who foresees a stoppage victory for Hewitt.

Hewitt's power is a legitimate threat, evidenced by a past knockout win. He will look to keep this fight standing, using his range and pressure to hunt for a finish. The strong local support will undoubtedly fuel him and could sway judges in any close rounds. However, his 2-3 professional record reveals vulnerabilities. He is not an unbeatable force, and his recent decision loss shows that opponents who can survive his initial onslaught can find success against him over three rounds.

This is where Matthew Friel, the underdog at 2.43, finds his opening. While his 1-2 record is unassuming, his sole victory came by submission, and Irish MMA legend Paddy Holohan has labeled him one of the division's most underrated grapplers. This isn't just fighter hype; it's an expert assessment of a specific, fight-winning skill set. Friel's path to victory is crystal clear: weather the early storm, close the distance, secure a takedown, and implement his ground game. If he can get on top, the entire dynamic of the fight shifts in his favor.

In matchups between fighters with developing records, the fighter with the more reliable and dominant single skill—in this case, Friel's grappling—often holds the edge over a fighter who relies on landing a single perfect shot. The odds on Hewitt feel inflated by the 'hometown hero' narrative and the visual appeal of his striking. The true value lies with the underdog. Friel has a defined and proven method to win, and at 2.43, the risk is more than justified by the potential reward. We are betting on the grappler's control trumping the striker's power.

This Cage Warriors 198 prelim bout presents a classic striker versus grappler matchup that could deliver fireworks at Manchester's BEC Arena. Ryan Hewitt enters as the 1.50 favorite, and there are compelling reasons to back him despite his modest 2-3 record.

Hewitt's aggressive striking style, highlighted by former Cage Warriors champion Brad Pickett, gives him a clear path to victory. His previous KO win demonstrates finishing power, and the home crowd advantage in Manchester's North West region where he trains cannot be understated. The energy from local supporters often provides that extra gear fighters need in crucial moments.

Matthew Friel's 2.43 odds reflect his underdog status, but Paddy Holohan's assessment of him as an "underrated grappler" shouldn't be dismissed lightly. Friel's sole professional win came by submission, showing he can capitalize when fights hit the mat. His recent close decision loss suggests he's competitive at this level, and an excellent training camp with no injury concerns positions him well.

The key question revolves around fight geography. If Friel can secure early takedowns and establish top control as Holohan suggests, he could neutralize Hewitt's striking advantage and potentially find a submission. However, Hewitt's aggressive approach and home crowd energy make it likely he'll push the pace and keep the fight standing where his power becomes the decisive factor.

Given the three-round format, Hewitt's striking aggression should accumulate damage over time. While Friel represents live upset potential with his grappling skills, the combination of Hewitt's home advantage, striking power, and the bookmakers' assessment at 1.50 makes him the logical choice. Expect Hewitt to weather any early grappling exchanges and eventually impose his will through superior striking volume and crowd-fueled momentum.

When it comes to MMA betting, especially in the flyweight division, you've got to look at styles and momentum. Ryan Hewitt steps into Cage Warriors 198 as the favorite at 1.50, and for good reason. His aggressive striking has been highlighted by experts like Brad Pickett, who predicts a stoppage win. Hewitt's got that KO power we saw in his previous victory, and fighting in Manchester with local support could give him an extra edge. Even though his record is 2-3, that recent decision loss might have been a learning curve, pushing him to come out firing.

On the flip side, Matthew Friel at 2.43 is no slouch. Paddy Holohan calls him an underrated grappler, and with his submission win on record, he could turn this into a ground war if he secures top control early. Friel's coming off a close decision loss, but reports of an excellent camp suggest he's peaked physically. The 'striker vs. grappler' narrative is buzzing on social media, and upsets happen when grapplers drag strikers down.

That said, I'm leaning towards Hewitt here. The odds reflect his favoritism across sportsbooks, and in a three-round prelim bout, his striking could overwhelm Friel before the grappling takes hold. Hewitt trains in the North West, so the crowd energy might disrupt Friel's rhythm. No injuries reported for either, and both made weight smoothly, so we're set for a clean fight.

From a betting perspective, putting $1 on Hewitt at 1.50 isn't the juiciest return, but it's a safer play for consistent profits. If you're feeling the upset vibe, Friel's underdog odds offer value, but I see Hewitt's aggression sealing it, likely by TKO in round two. This matchup screams excitement for MMA fans – don't miss it!

This flyweight bout at Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester presents a compelling striker versus grappler dynamic, with local favorite Ryan Hewitt taking on the underdog Matthew Friel. Both fighters have made weight without issues, and the absence of injuries sets the stage for a clean, competitive fight. Hewitt's aggressive striking, highlighted by analyst Brad Pickett, could be the key factor, especially given his previous knockout victory and the home crowd support in the BEC Arena. However, his 2-3 record and recent decision loss reveal vulnerabilities if the fight extends beyond the early rounds.

Matthew Friel, with a 1-2 record, brings a dangerous grappling game, as noted by Paddy Holohan, who emphasized Friel's underrated skills on the ground. Friel's sole win by submission and close decision loss indicate he can hang with tougher opponents, and his excellent camp suggests he's prepared to exploit any openings. The 2.43 odds on Friel offer enticing value for bettors looking at a potential upset, particularly if he secures top control early and neutralizes Hewitt's striking.

Expert opinions add depth to the analysis: Pickett's prediction of a Hewitt stoppage aligns with the betting market's confidence, reflected in the 1.50 odds, which imply around a 67% chance of victory. Conversely, Holohan's insights remind us that MMA is unpredictable, and Friel's grappling could turn the tide if he avoids early damage. The local support for Hewitt might fuel his aggression, but Friel's resilience and submission threat make this a closer contest than the odds suggest.

From a betting perspective, the 1.50 on Hewitt requires a high degree of certainty for profitability, as it demands a win in most scenarios to yield a return. While Hewitt's striking and home advantage make him the logical favorite, Friel's 2.43 odds provide a calculated risk for those believing in his grappling prowess. Ultimately, after evaluating styles, records, and context, Hewitt's ability to dictate the stand-up game and potential for a finish give him the edge for a profitable wager.

The matchup between Ryan Hewitt and Matthew Friel presents an intriguing clash of styles that could genuinely go either way, but a deeper dive into the context suggests one fighter holds a slight edge. Hewitt, the moderate favorite with odds of 1.50, is known for his aggressive striking, a skill set that former Cage Warriors champion Brad Pickett has specifically highlighted as a potential difference-maker. Hewitt’s ability to close distance and deliver powerful strikes was on full display in his last victory, a knockout win, which aligns with Pickett’s prediction of a stoppage. However, it’s worth noting that Hewitt comes into this bout off a decision loss, which might signal some vulnerabilities in his game, particularly against opponents who can dictate pace or exploit defensive gaps.
Matthew Friel, listed at 2.43, enters as the underdog but brings a compelling narrative into the cage. As Irish MMA legend Paddy Holohan pointed out, Friel’s grappling skills are among the most underrated in the division. His lone professional win came via submission, showcasing his ability to capitalize on positional dominance once he gets his opponent grounded. Holohan’s comments suggest that if Friel can secure top control early, he has the tools to surprise Hewitt and potentially pull off an upset. Additionally, Friel’s recent camp has reportedly been excellent, indicating he may be sharper than ever heading into this contest."The setting of the fight adds another layer of complexity. Taking place in Manchester’s BEC Arena, Hewitt will have the advantage of strong local support given his ties to the North West region. While home-cage advantage isn’t always decisive, it can influence a fighter’s confidence and energy levels. This could be pivotal in a matchup where both fighters have relatively modest records—Hewitt at 2-3 and Friel at 1-2—and neither has established themselves as dominant forces in the sport yet."From a betting perspective, the odds reflect the perception of Hewitt’s striking prowess giving him the upper hand. At 1.50, however, there’s limited value in backing him outright unless you’re highly confident in his ability to finish the fight early. Conversely, Friel’s odds of 2.43 offer some appeal for bettors willing to take a risk on his grappling-centric approach. That said, the “striker vs. grappler” dynamic often hinges on who can impose their game plan first, and Hewitt’s aggression might prevent Friel from getting the fight to the mat where he thrives."Ultimately, the key question revolves around whether Hewitt’s power and aggression can overwhelm Friel before the latter secures a takedown and works from top position. Given the available information, including expert insights and the situational factors, Hewitt appears more likely to dictate the terms of engagement. His striking arsenal combined with the crowd support gives him a tangible edge in what promises to be a competitive bout. While Friel’s grappling shouldn’t be underestimated, Hewitt’s ability to end fights quickly makes him the safer pick in this scenario.