Betting tips from AI for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers, 16 December 2025.

This is a Sunshine State grudge match where analytics and health swings tip the balance. FSR Orlando’s model paints a 4-2 Tampa win and Forebet gives the Lightning a 53% chance — those are meaningful signals when Nikita Kucherov is back and Tampa’s defense has conceded just 83 goals. Florida’s December surge (5-4-1, 36 goals) and a clicking power play make this far from a layup, and recent head-to-heads have been high-scoring affairs.

I trust Tampa’s home edge and defensive discipline to contain Florida enough to win outright. Betting Tampa Bay at 2.14 offers reasonable value versus Florida at 2.90, so I’ll back the Lightning to take the moneyline.

The Sunshine Derby promises fireworks as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the red-hot Florida Panthers. While Florida has been on a tear, surging into playoff contention with a 1.05-4-1 record over their last ten and netting 1.36 goals, Tampa Bay has found its stride, especially with Nikita Kucherov healthy, climbing back into the Eastern Conference's top eight. The Lightning already stunned Florida 1.03-1 on the road earlier this season in a low-shot affair, and now they aim to defend home ice, a venue that has seen at least six goals in seven of their last eight clashes against the Panthers. Computer models from FSR Orlando forecast a 1.04-2 Lightning win, backing Tampa on the moneyline, while Forebet's algorithm gives the hosts a 1.53% shot at victory. Despite the potential for a goal-fest, the strong analytical lean towards Tampa, combined with their home-ice advantage and impressive bounce-back, makes them the smart play. Betting on the Lightning at 2.14 offers solid value for a team with proven rivalry success and momentum.

The Sunshine Derby promises fireworks, but Tampa Bay has the edge at Amalie Arena. With Kucherov back healthy, the Lightning have stabilized defensively, allowing a league-best 83 goals against - crucial for this matchup. While Florida has been productive offensively with 36 goals in their last 10 games, Tampa's disciplined defense should contain their 2.90 underdog visitors.

The computer model predicting a 4-2 Lightning win aligns with Tampa's moneyline value at 2.14, making them the smart play. Their earlier 3-1 road victory against Florida demonstrated their ability to control this rivalry matchup, and now they have home ice advantage where they've historically thrived against the Panthers.

With Forebet's algorithm giving Tampa a 53% win probability and their recent climb into the Eastern Conference playoff picture, the Lightning represent both statistical value and momentum. In this heated Atlantic Division clash, back the home team to continue their resurgence.

The Sunshine Derby is set to light up Amalie Arena, with the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Florida Panthers in a battle for Atlantic Division supremacy. Tampa enters on a hot streak, having bounced back into the Eastern Conference's top eight after four straight regulation losses, thanks to a healthy Nikita Kucherov and the league's best defensive discipline—allowing just 83 goals against. Their earlier 3-1 road win over Florida this season shows they can stifle the Panthers' attack.

Florida has been surging since December, posting a 5-4-1 record in their last 10 with 36 goals scored and a clicking 11.5% power play. Yet, Forebet's algorithm gives Tampa a 53% edge at home, while a sharp computer model predicts a 4-2 Lightning victory, leaning under 6.5 goals despite the rivalry's history of high-scoring affairs—seven of the last eight clashes at Tampa saw at least six tallies.

With Tampa at 2.14 on the moneyline offering solid value against Florida's 2.90, this feels like a profitable spot to back the hosts in a tight, grudge-filled tilt. Expect Tampa's home ice advantage to shine through.

The Sunshine Derby is set for a classic at Amalie Arena, where recent trends suggest goals will fly. Scores24 notes Tampa's home ice has seen at least six goals in seven of the last eight clashes against Florida, hinting at a high-scoring affair.
Tampa holds a slight edge with Forebet's algorithm giving them a 53% chance and the FSR Orlando model projecting a 4-2 Lightning win. Nikita Kucherov's healthy return has stabilized Tampa, who boast league-best defense with only 83 goals against.
However, the Florida Panthers are surging offensively since December, with a 5-4-1 record and 36 goals in their last 10. Their power play is clicking at 11.5%, which could test Tampa's discipline. While the earlier season saw a low-scoring 3-1 Tampa road win, the home-ice advantage and recent defensive form make the Lightning the safer pick at 2.14, even though the Panthers offer tempting value at 2.90.

The Sunshine Derby between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers promises to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams showcasing strong form. Tampa Bay has regained momentum thanks to Nikita Kucherov's return, bolstering their playoff push with disciplined defensive play. Their home record at Amalie Arena has been formidable, especially against divisional rivals like Florida. The odds of 2.14 for the Lightning reflect their slight edge in this matchup.

Florida, however, isn't to be underestimated. Since December, they've surged into contention with consistent scoring and an 11.5% power-play conversion rate. Despite being underdogs at 2.90, the Panthers have demonstrated resilience on the road. Yet, history leans toward Tampa in high-stakes clashes at home, particularly given their recent bounce-back performances.

While some models predict a goal-fest, others suggest under 6.5 goals—a nod to Tampa's defensive prowess. Considering these factors, backing the Lightning appears prudent. They combine home-ice advantage with superior recent results and playoff urgency, making them the safer bet despite Florida's offensive firepower.