Betting tips from AI for Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 23 January 2026.

I’m backing Tommy Paul at 1.52. The Dimers model gives Paul a 65% shot and highlights a clear first-set edge, and the Americans’ 4-0 H2H dominance — including a crushing straight-sets win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at last year’s Australian Open — matters on these courts.

Form is mixed but telling: both arrive 2-2 in 2026, Paul served through Thiago Tirante in straight sets while Davidovich Fokina staged a gritty comeback from two sets down versus Reilly Opelka. Paul’s extra aces and cleaner baseline control should neutralize Davidovich Fokina’s break-point craft; expect a competitive match with Paul edging key moments.

Given the model edge, matchup history and Paul’s serving advantage, the smart $1 play is Tommy Paul at 1.52.

Tommy Paul enters this Australian Open clash as a significant favorite, and for good reason. The bookmakers have him at 1.52, and models like Dimers' give him a commanding 65% chance of victory. The most compelling factor is Paul's utterly dominant 4-0 head-to-head record against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, which includes a decisive straight-sets triumph over the Spaniard right here at the Australian Open last year. That kind of psychological edge is invaluable.

While both players are 2-2 in 2026, Paul's recent straight-sets win over Tirante suggests he's finding his rhythm efficiently. Fokina, on the other hand, had to battle back from two sets down against Opelka, a testament to his grit but also potentially a drain on his energy reserves. Despite Fokina's higher world ranking at No. 14, the historical dominance, recent form on this surface, and the betting market consensus at 1.48 all point squarely to a Tommy Paul victory. Expect him to continue his mastery over Fokina.

Tommy Paul's perfect 4-0 head-to-head record against Davidovich Fokina speaks volumes, especially considering he dismantled the Spaniard in straight sets at this very tournament last year. While both players enter with identical 2-2 records in 2026, Paul's serving prowess (more aces per match) gives him a decisive edge on the quick Melbourne hard courts.

Paul's comfortable straight-sets win over Tirante shows he's finding form at the right time, while Davidovich Fokina's five-set comeback against Opelka, though impressive, likely took a physical toll. The 1.52 odds on Paul actually represent value considering the matchup history and surface advantage.

Despite Davidovich Fokina's higher ranking (14 vs. Paul's 20), the American's game matches up perfectly against the Spaniard's style. The model projecting a 65% win probability for Paul aligns with the betting markets, confirming this is a solid wager on the American to continue his dominance in this rivalry.

In the sweltering heat of Melbourne Park, Tommy Paul faces off against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in a Round of 32 thriller at the Australian Open. Paul enters as the clear favorite at 1.52, backed by a flawless 4-0 head-to-head record, including a straight-sets demolition of Fokina in last year's fourth round. Dimers' model echoes this dominance, projecting Paul with a 65% win probability and a strong first-set edge, though it hints at a gritty over on total games.

Both players are 2-2 in 2026, but Paul's recent straight-sets cruise past Thiago Agustin Tirante showcases his serving prowess—more aces per match—while Fokina's comeback win over Reilly Opelka highlights his resilience and break-point sniping. Yet, Paul's consistency on hard courts and historical edge make him the safer bet. Despite Fokina's No. 14 ranking to Paul's No. 20, the markets at 1.48 imply a 67% Paul victory, undervaluing his matchup mastery.

For a $1 bet, Paul's moneyline offers solid value in this lopsided affair. Expect Paul to control the baseline and advance.

Tommy Paul holds a formidable 4-0 head-to-head advantage over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, including a straight-sets win at last year's Australian Open. Dimers' model favors Paul with a 65% win probability, echoed by bookmaker odds of 1.52 that position him as the clear favorite.

Despite Davidovich Fokina's higher ranking and epic comeback against Reilly Opelka, Paul's recent straight-sets victory and superior serving form at Melbourne Park give him the edge. The odds reflect a strong chance for Paul to continue his dominance, making this a profitable bet.

Tommy Paul heads into this Round of 32 match at the Australian Open as a clear favorite, with bookmakers setting his odds at 1.52. This reflects both his dominant 4-0 head-to-head record against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and his recent strong performance. Paul's straight-sets victory over Thiago Agustin Tirante in the previous round showcases his current form, while Davidovich Fokina's comeback win against Reilly Opelka, though impressive, was a grueling five-set affair that may have taken a toll. Despite Davidovich Fokina's higher world ranking, Paul's consistent aces and the psychological edge from past victories make him a formidable opponent. The betting markets also favor Paul, aligning with Dimers' model, which gives him a 65% chance of winning. Given these factors, backing Tommy Paul seems like the most profitable bet for this match.