Betting tips from AI for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Chicago Blackhawks, 17 December 2025.

Models and metrics line up for Toronto: AccuScore gives the Leafs 58.6% and DRatings 64.4%, with Forebet at 62% — the home side looks favored on shots and goalie save percentage, and Toronto is listed at 1.47.
Still, regression risk is real. Toronto's 0-6 home skid and two straight losses (including a 6-3 defeat) blunt confidence, while Chicago's bullish 67% road moneyline over the last 30 days and 2.85 make them a live upset threat. 1070thegame's 4-3 projection and an under 6.5 angle feel sensible.
I back the Toronto Maple Leafs to win but expect a tight, low-scoring contest — consider pairing the moneyline with the under for better value.

This NHL clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Chicago Blackhawks presents a fascinating betting scenario. While computer models like AccuScore (58.6% win prob) and DRatings (64.4% win prob) heavily lean towards Toronto, the real-world performance paints a different picture. The Maple Leafs are in a significant slump, dropping their last two games, including a 6-3 home loss to Edmonton, and hold a dismal 0-6 home record in their past six outings. This makes their 1.47 odds feel inflated.

Conversely, the Blackhawks, despite their own back-to-back defeats and 23rd power ranking, have shown surprising resilience on the road, boasting a sneaky 67% road moneyline win rate over the last 30 days. The value here is undeniable. Betting on the Blackhawks at 2.85 offers a strong return, especially when considering Toronto's current struggles at Scotiabank Arena. The experts at 1070thegame even suggest a tight game, recommending Blackhawks +1.5, which aligns with the potential for an upset.

Despite the Maple Leafs being heavily favored at 1.47, their recent form raises serious red flags. Toronto's abysmal 0-6 record in their last six home games cannot be ignored, especially against a Chicago team that's converting 67% of road moneylines over the past month.

While multiple prediction models (AccuScore, DRatings, Forebet) give Toronto win probabilities between 58-64%, the value clearly lies with Chicago at 2.85. The Blackhawks' +1.5 spread recommendation from 1070thegame further supports their competitiveness in this matchup.

Toronto's recent 6-3 home loss to Edmonton highlights their defensive vulnerabilities, and with both teams sitting adjacently in the power rankings (22nd and 23rd), the talent gap isn't nearly as wide as the odds suggest. The Blackhawks' road success makes them an excellent value play against a Leafs team that can't seem to deliver at Scotiabank Arena.

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Chicago Blackhawks in a pivotal NHL matchup at Scotiabank Arena, where home-ice advantage could finally turn the tide for a struggling squad. Despite Toronto's dismal 0-6 skid in their last six home games and a recent 6-3 drubbing by Edmonton, expert simulations paint a brighter picture. AccuScore gives the Leafs a 58.6% win probability, highlighting their edge in shots on goal and goalie save percentage, while DRatings ups that to 64.4%, projecting a 3.65-2.48 scoring edge. Forebet echoes the sentiment with a 62% Toronto win chance, banking on momentum against a middling Blackhawks team that's dropped back-to-back games and sits 23rd in power rankings.

Chicago's sneaky 67% road moneyline win rate over the last 30 days adds intrigue, but their overall form lags behind Toronto's firepower. Computer models from 1070thegame foresee a tight 4-3 Leafs victory, suggesting value in the under 6.5 goals. With odds at 1.47 for Toronto and 2.85 for Chicago, the moneyline leans heavily toward the home side—smart bettors will ride the simulations' consensus for a profitable Toronto win, avoiding the tempting 4.40 draw in this high-stakes clash.

Toronto's recent home struggles are alarming, with an 0-6 record in their last six at Scotiabank Arena. However, multiple predictive models see them snapping that skid tonight.

AccuScore simulations give the Leafs a 58.6% win probability, citing their edge in shots and goaltending, while DRatings projects a 64.4% chance. The computer model at 1070thegame predicts a tight 4-3 Toronto victory.

Chicago's solid 67% road moneyline win rate over the last 30 days offers value at 2.85, but the Leafs' superior talent and the weight of the models make them the lean. The 1.47 price on Toronto is steep, but the probability suggests it's the correct side.

This matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Chicago Blackhawks presents an intriguing betting scenario. The Leafs are clear favorites with odds of 1.47, reflecting their statistical edge, but recent trends raise some red flags. Despite AccuScore giving them a 58.6% win probability and DRatings projecting a 64.4% chance of victory, Toronto has been in poor form at home, losing their last six games at Scotiabank Arena. This alarming trend coincides with a subpar 32% over-under hit rate on home ice, suggesting they might struggle to cover lofty expectations.

On the other hand, the Blackhawks enter this contest with sneaky resilience on the road, boasting a 67% moneyline win rate over the past 30 days. While they’re not favored here (odds of 2.85), their ability to grind out results away from home could make them a live underdog. Computer models like those at 1070thegame even suggest backing Chicago +1.5 on the spread, hinting that this game may be closer than many anticipate.

The total goals market also warrants attention, as both teams have shown scoring potential yet defensive vulnerabilities. With projections pointing toward a high-scoring affair, the under 6.5 recommendation seems counterintuitive unless recent slumps weigh heavily on Toronto’s output. Ultimately, while the analytics favor the Leafs, their shaky current form makes the risk-reward proposition less appealing compared to taking a shot on the 'Hawks or the draw.

Considering all factors, I lean toward the safer pick based on probabilities: Toronto winning narrowly despite their struggles.